Japan's PM expected to call December election

Compromises made

The LDP has been using an iron hand in a velvet glove when pushing Noda to make good on his promises, and it has been supportive of Noda's key conditions for dissolving the lower house for an election.

Along with the New Komeito party, the LDP agreed with Noda's DPJ on Tuesday on making amendments to rules on deficit-covering bonds. They also agreed to discuss measures to reform the social security system.

The LDP's willingness to work together on Noda's key issues has driven the prime minister into a corner.

Yet observers warned that the main opposition is still far from gathering major momentum in the upcoming election because new, minor parties are splitting the vote.

The "third force" of Japanese politics — including Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party and former Tokyo governer Shintaro Ishihara's new Party of Sun — is sparing no effort to seize more seats from the traditional parties.

"The springtime of the LDP has not arrived yet because a stronger political coalition is required for the opposition party to regain a majority in the lower house, and its marriage with the New Komeito party is not enough," said Zang Zhijun, a professor of Japanese studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

On Monday the LDP leader criticized the prime minister for being all bark and no bite. "A prime minister of this kind is possessed of no power on political, economic and diplomatic issues," he said.

The failed former prime minister, who is eager to get his second shot at the premiership, unveiled his scheme on Monday. His party leads in the polls, which puts him in pole position to become the next premier.

Abe said the Bank of Japan should continue monetary easing to beat deflation.

On the diplomatic front, he stressed a strong Japan-US alliance. He would change the current interpretation of the constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense, and he proposed that the Japan Coast Guard purchase retired ships from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force and let them sail in the East China Sea.

Burdened ruling party

Some DPJ lawmakers were wary of a lower House dissolution, saying it is the "worst time" because the cabinet's approval ratings have fallen.

The latest polls have found that the disapproval rate for Noda's cabinet has hit a record high of 64 percent. Public support for it has tumbled to below 20 percent, a threshold from which former Japanese prime ministers in recent history have failed to recover.

Recent surveys have also shown that the public is at odds with Noda over his signature sales tax hike proposal, which would see consumption tax doubled to 10 percent, as well as his handling of diplomatically sensitive territorial disputes with Japan's neighbors.

However, Noda said that if the LDP could meet his conditions regarding cutting the number of lawmakers in the 480-seat lower chamber, then he would agree to the dissolution.

"I think I could dissolve the lower house Friday, if LDP President Shinzo Abe makes promises on cutting the number of lawmakers in the 480-seat lower house," Noda was quoted as saying during deliberations with his LDP counterpart.

Lu Yaodong, director of the department of Japanese diplomacy of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Noda's lasting efforts for maintaining his position reflects his party's yearning to spend a longer time in government, which "stems from its basic instinct".

"To dissolve the lower house within the year may be more decent for the party, and Noda stepping down before the year 2013 may be more favorable," Lu said of the political dilemma his party faces.

At a meeting of DPJ executives on Tuesday, Nakayama Yoshikatsu, chairman of the lower house Committee on Foreign Affairs, opposed the dissolution of the house, claiming that Noda should quit, according to the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun.

Azuma Koshiishi, the ruling party's secretary-general and second in command, said he does not believe the DPJ can win in the next election. Some 10 DPJ lawmakers are ready to bolt from their party, if the lower house dissolution happens.

"The ruling DPJ has shouldered all the burdens of the past three years, including those political troubles brought by right-wing radical politicians, and the burdens may be a major setback for the party to survive in the upcoming election," said Zang Zhijun, the professor at Fudan University.

Contact the writers at caihong@chinadaily.com.cn and zhangyunbi@chinadaily.com.cn.

Xinhua contributed to this story.

 

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