Future far from disturbing

China will continue to grow peacefully and consolidate the path of win-win cooperation and mutual trust

The US National Intelligence Council's latest report says China's GDP will exceed that of the United States before 2030 but it will find it difficult to maintain an economic growth rate of 8 to 10 percent in the future because of unstable politics, rising nationalism and the middle-income trap.

Many similar predictions have been made before, but this is the first time the NIC has done so. And irrespective of its reliability, the report will add fuel to the "China threat" theory or give rise to mistaken views on China's collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to clear some basic facts.

First, China remains the largest developing country and home to the largest population in the world. But it lacks resources and has an unbalanced development despite its fast economic growth.

The per capita availability of arable land, freshwater, and oil and natural gas in the country is less than 50 percent, 33 percent and 6 percent of the world average. And its rapid economic growth has widened the income and resources gap, apart from damaging the environment.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the per capita GDP of the Chinese mainland was $5,400 in 2011 - 89th in the world. So even if, as the NIC says, the mainland becomes the world's largest economy in 2030 in terms of GDP, its per capita GDP will be a mere 20 percent of the US.

China is also under mounting domestic pressure to build a fairer social security network, for in many parts of the country the education and healthcare levels are lower than the average of developing countries

Second, China is still the most popular investment destination for international enterprises, according to the 2012 UN report on world investment. Indeed, China has the conditions to remain the most ideal investment destination in the world in the future and has confidence in its sustainable economic development.

As for the middle-income trap, it is groundless to surmise that the country ill be caught in it, because facts prove otherwise. The new leadership of the country has already made it clear that it will carry forward the reform and opening-up policy started by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s and take measures to boost domestic demand.

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