Second-guessing studios' Oscar campaigns

In 2003, veteran publicist Tony Angellotti remembers when Harvey Weinstein was still at Miramax and he held an event at the cavernous Santa Monica Civic Auditorium to showcase the music from "Cold Mountain," including an appearance by Sting, who wrote and performed "You Will Be My Ain True Love" with Alison Krauss.

"They invited hundreds of Academy members, which was a technical violation of the rules," he recalls. "But who wouldn't show up for Sting?"

Events like this may happen more now. Some are within the bounds of propriety -- like a Tuesday cocktail party that Warner Bros. and Alcon Entertainment put together at the last minute for Sandra Bullock and director John Lee Hancock ("The Blind Side") when they realized Bullock was in serious contention for an acting award. Others cross the line -- and those who do cross it will largely get away scot-free.

"The Academy really only has two options to punish them," one insider says. "One is to deny them tickets to the Academy Awards -- but when you aren't even sure you're if going to be nominated, that really isn't a problem. No. 2 is the nuclear option, which is to disqualify the film. That's never been done and probably never will be."

"We haven't seen any outright breaking of the rules this year that I'm aware of," says Ric Robertson, executive administrator of the Academy. "But there's so much gray area because many of our members are also members of guilds, so if someone is invited to a Q&A in violation of our rules, they're able to fall back and say, 'No, it was the editors' guild or the cinematographers' association,' or something like that. That's where it's toughest to enforce our rules."

Whatever individual campaigners decide to do, campaigning now shifts to reach a whole new body of voters who matter less in the early stages.

"You need those below-the-line categories to kick in and support you," says publicist Ronni Chasen, who does work for Paramount, Lionsgate and others. "You need the actors, but to win best picture you also need the rank-and-file -- the crafts groups, the editors, cinematographers and others."

While actors constitute 1,222 voting members of the Academy, they are not alone. Film editors make up 227 votes, sound technicians 411 votes, cinematographers 197 votes and art directors 373 votes. Veteran campaigners are now targeting these groups by hosting events for them, advertising in -house publications and using respected guild members to introduce the films and key crew.

"It's all (about) creating awareness," says Tom Bernard, co-president of Sony Classics. "You want to remind people of the films." Similarly, he says, "there are a lot of (stars and directors) doing a lot of chat shows in the first weeks of January."

James Cameron is one of them. DVDs of his mega-grossing "Avatar" didn't go out at all during the holidays -- considered the peak time to reach voters -- not just because the movie had only recently opened, but also, insiders say, because Cameron couldn't personally supervise the 2D version until he had finished tub-thumping his movie around the world. (The director spent part of his Christmas season overseeing the DVD version, which finally went out January 10.)

"By then, it was mainly a way to help people reinforce the experience," says one studio marketer, noting that the DVD may matter less for "Avatar" than for "Hurt Locker" because the movie has been so widely seen -- and also because Fox wants Academy members to see it in theaters in order to fully appreciate its scope and ambitions.

"Avatar's" critical response is a factor that has shifted the race almost overnight. Before the picture opened, talk about the front-runners centered on "Up in the Air," "Invictus," "Precious" and "Inglourious Basterds." Now all must contend with Cameron's monster. That is typical of how the race shifts late in the game.

"Sometimes you get a new piece of data you feel is relevant or there are elements of a campaign that are really working and getting some traction," says Megan Colligan, co-president of marketing at Paramount Pictures. "Every campaign is fluid. You look at material cut two months before and can't believe how bad it is; but at the time you did it, you thought it was the best thing in the world. Your opinions change. The movies do tend to live and breathe and evolve, and your job is to keep working with (them)."

That is what Colligan will be doing with "The Lovely Bones," even though its Oscar chances are effectively over. She seems stoic. "There are movies that live and die by awards," she explains. "I don't think we have one of those this year. In previous years, I absolutely have had them (such as 'There Will Be Blood'). With those, if they don't get awards recognition, there isn't another way to go. It's nice when there are other audiences you can capture."