Beyond coal

Despite China's five-year campaign to ease the energy crunch, the country still has a long way to go to realize a sustainable energy future.

It's predicted that China will account for more than 25 percent of the world's primary energy demand by 2025 and its demand will be quadrupled by 2050, compared to the level at the start of this century.

In addition, fossil resources such as coal and oil will still account for the bulk of China's energy needs by 2050, and are predicted to be 70 percent of the total.

"Coal will keep the role of the country's top energy choice up to 2050 because of the fast growing industrialization," according to a report, Shell Energy Scenarios To 2050, recently released in Beijing by Shell's Global Business Environment team - an organization that studies the world's energy sector.

"This is the first time that Shell's Global Business Environment Team released a forward-looking report in China," says Jeremy B Bentham, vice-president of Shell's Global Business Environment Team and the head of Shell Scenarios.

According to Bentham, more than 300 professionals from academies such as Oxford Economics and the International Energy Agency, enterprises (Royal Dutch Shell), as well some NGOs, worked for three years analyzing the energy situations of 70 countries around the world.

"China is one of our significant focuses," Bentham notes.

According to the report, in the last five years more than 44 percent of the world's energy consumption came from coal and the rate is higher in China, accounting for nearly 70 percent in the country's energy mix.

Furthermore, China's energy consumption is estimated to reach 2.9 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by 2010 and 3.8 billion in 2020.

One thing is clear, according to the report: an energy transition is inevitable for China in order to reduce energy consumption and emissions.

A portfolio of political and regulatory action is needed and it is critical over the next five years, the report notes. Policy choices in the next five years will shape energy production and usage and influence economic and environmental progress for the next 15 years.

"Tomorrow is much more dependent on how we do today," according to the report.

And China's 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-10) has started action for energy saving and emissions control.

By the end of 2007, China had completed 26.9 percent of its target for the 11th Five-Year Plan. Energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased 5.38 percent compared with the 2005 level. It was estimated that the decline saved 147 million tons of standard coal.

"It is a perfect starting point for China and elsewhere to face the challenge of environmental protection and energy security," says Bentham.

However, fossil fuels continue to take a heavy toll on China's environment. More coal-related energy means more carbon emissions.

To stem climate change, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy are essential, says the report.

"Global CO2 emissions would be capped by 2020 and subsequently begin to decline to 2000 levels by 2050, which is under the suitable policy of promoting renewable energy development," says the report.

China has huge potential for wind and solar energy, Bentham says, and the government is also promoting hydroelectricity, geothermal energy and marine energy.

"Renewable energy will be an important part of China's future energy mix," Bentham notes, adding that it will account for an estimated 16 percent of China's total energy consumption in 2020, and make up around 30 percent of primary energy by 2050.

In addition, Bentham points out that China should develop unconventional fossil fuel sources such as oil sand and shale.

"China has great oil sand reserves," Bentham says, adding that the next five years will be a critical period to promote oil sand exploration technology.

(China Daily 10/06/2008 page5)