Fallout of Obama's visit to India

Nuclear deal raises concerns

The announcement of a "breakthrough understanding" on the stalled Indo-US civilian nuclear deal shows substance coming out of US President Barack Obama's visit to India.

The understanding is a critical step that moves the two countries closer to operating the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2006, under which, India agreed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and to place all its civil nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and the US agreed to full civil nuclear cooperation with India.

It addresses one of the two issues that had stalled the agreement's operation, the issue of liability in the event of a nuclear accident, with the setting up of a large insurance pool without the need to change India's existing legislation.

The other is the US' demand for tracking of nuclear materials transferred from the US and other countries, which has seemingly been withdrawn.

Nonproliferation specialists have challenged the legitimacy and consequences of withdrawing a requirement to track nuclear materials transferred to India. They argue that India has nuclear weapons, is not party to any nonproliferation treaty, and its nuclear weapons program is outside of IAEA safeguards, so any sales and transfers of civilian nuclear materials, technology and plants without additional safeguard arrangements may directly or indirectly assist India's nuclear weapons program.

If so, it would be a big blow to the international nonproliferation regime. Waiving the materials tracking provision may also upset other nuclear capable countries such as Japan whose nuclear programs are under full IAEA safeguards.

The deal means it is now up to US companies to decide whether to do business in India, and, of course, the companies with their eyes on India have welcomed the efforts of the US and Indian governments.

To date, media coverage on the nuclear "understanding" has largely focused on its implications for US-Indian relations and nuclear industries. However, the new Indo-US understanding may also have impact on Pakistan's nuclear development.

This serves as a reminder that any nuclear deal has its nonproliferation and geopolitical implications. Policies and policymakers have to take these implications into consideration when engaging in nuclear cooperation.

Having said this, it should be noted that nuclear civilian cooperation per se is market oriented as long as the cooperation is in compliance with international nonproliferation norms and regulations.

China is a growing exporter of civilian nuclear energy and is assessing more overseas markets, including India's. During President Xi's visit to India last year, India and China issued a joint statement announcing their civilian nuclear cooperation.

Chinese leaders have also pledged to continue nuclear energy cooperation with Pakistan, an energy thirsty country. The West should no longer make a fuss over China-Pakistan's civilian nuclear cooperation.

Han Hua is an associate professor at School of International Studies, Peking University.

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