Stability vital for Peninsula

The death of Kim Jong-il and changes in the leadership of some Northeast Asian countries in 2011 added to the uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula. But till now, the Peninsula has remained stable.

To consolidate his leadership and emphasize his adherence to the "military first" policy, new Democratic People's Republic of Korea leader Kim Jong-un has interacted frequently with the military and launched a satellite in April despite rising international pressure not to do so. The DPRK has also indicated that reforms and opening-up are not on its priority list at least now.

But the DPRK's new leadership has been paying greater attention to economic development and improvement of people's livelihood. For example, Kim Jong-un went on inspection tours of the military before May. After that his focus has shifted to factories and enterprises, amusement parks and facilities related to people's livelihood.

By doing so, he can consolidate his leadership, which is absolutely necessary for starting economic adjustments and reforms. Besides, the development of the economy and improvement of people's livelihood can also make the government stronger.

The existing political and economic system in the DPRK is the product of the past more than half a century. And given the country's traditional "military first" policy, the new leadership needs time to consolidate its administration to prevent reforms from backfiring. Also, by making public the DPRK leader's speech and family situation, and publicly acknowledging the failure of the satellite launch, the new leadership seems to be more transparent than the earlier one.

China has a clear stand on the DPRK and continues to help stabilize the leadership transition in that country. This is conducive to improving the DPRK's relations with the United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

After the unsuccessful satellite launch in April, China proactively coordinated with relevant parties, and urged the US, Japan and the ROK to exercise restraint to defuse the tension. China also supported the UN Security Council's presidential statement condemning the satellite launch and made it clear to the DPRK's new leadership what Beijing "supports" and what it "opposes".

Beijing has played a crucial role in preventing Pyongyang from conducting a third nuclear test and helped stabilize the situation by urging Washington, Tokyo and Seoul not to take more tough measures against the DPRK.

US-DPRK relations have remained stable. Two days after Kim Jong-il's death, US and DPRK representatives held talks through the "New York channel". In February this year, high-level US and DPRK officials held talks in Beijing and reached an agreement. Even after the April satellite launch, the two sides had maintained contact through "channels" in Singapore and other places.

The main factor influencing the development on the Korean Peninsula is still the DPRK's internal affairs. The situation in Northeast Asia, especially the security situation, depends mainly on the developments on the Peninsula. Therefore, we should help the DPRK's internal affairs to move in a positive direction.

The policies of China and the US toward the DPRK are vital external factors that influence Pyongyang as well as the situation on the Peninsula. The efforts China and the international community made over the past decade failed to stop the DPRK from developing nuclear weapons because of the lack of substantive cooperation between Beijing and Washington owing to their mutual strategic suspicion.

But soon after Kim Jong-il's death, China and the US agreed to help maintain stability on the Peninsula. After the DPRK unsuccessfully launched a satellite in April, the two sides again agreed to work together to maintain stability on the Peninsula.

China's stand is crucial to maintaining stability on the Peninsula because, thanks to historical reasons, Beijing has greater influence on the situation on the Peninsula. Also, China maintains friendly relations with the DPRK and ROK both, and does not take any action against one country because it would hurt the other. Beijing's policy statements on the Peninsula, however, appear obscure at times, prompting some countries to misread them and play the "China card". So China needs to be clearer in its statements and more distinct in its stand on the Peninsula issue, just as it did this year.

Maintaining stability on the Peninsula is in the interest of all the concerned parties. The DPRK, the ROK, China, the US, Russia and Japan will realize their interests only if the Peninsula is peaceful and stable.

The ROK should coordinate with China more closely to resolve the Peninsula issue. It is unfortunate that the DPRK and the ROK have not yet started direct talks. Seoul's hard-line policy toward Pyongyang and its dependence on Washington could marginalize it on the issue. Seoul should know that although Washington has a leading role to play in the security of Northeast Asia, it needs Beijing's help to play its full part in the Peninsula issue.

That doesn't mean that China intends to influence US-ROK ties. The outcome, however, will depend on the situation on the Peninsula and whether all the parties will have mutually beneficial concerns. Japan wants to exert its influence as a political power, but it also needs to coordinate with China, because in the long run, close coordination among Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul can break the biggest impasse in Northeast Asia, which would be in the interest of one and all.

The author is a research fellow at National Institute of International Strategy, affiliated to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 08/31/2012 page9)