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Experts detail risks to growth

Updated: 2013-10-30 08:39
By BAO CHANG ( China Daily)

Shen Jianguang, chief economist for China at Mizuho Securities Asia, said that excess capacity has become the main obstacle to the nation's economic revival and sustainable development.

In the third quarter, GDP grew 7.8 percent, marking a recovery from the 7.5 percent in the second quarter.

Li said that the economic rebound was being driven by rising domestic investment, since the proportion of investment in GDP still is very high.

"This year, investment will account for 55.8 percent of total GDP, a high proportion and just slightly less than the number for 2010.

"Many enterprises are striving to expand into the investment sector, leaving few resources for the original business of the companies. That can't yield sustainable development," said Li Yizhong, director of the China Federation of Industrial Economics. The real economy "shouldn't be sidelined", Li added.

Among various investment sectors, the real estate field is considered the most unpredictable when it comes to influencing the sustainable development of the economy.

"The condition of supply exceeding demand has emerged in the real estate market in the third- and fourth-tier cities, and prices reflect a decrease of 30 to 40 percent in those cities," Li at the DRC said.

"It's certain that real estate bubbles do exist in large cities in China, and the trend is still developing," said Li.

In addition, China's exports also are going through tough times. China's advantage in terms of export prices has been undermined by the stronger yuan, Li said.

In the first three quarters, exports totaled 10.06 trillion yuan ($1.65 trillion), up 8 percent from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

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