Debate: Sino-US ties

Jin Canrong

Cooperation should be future policy

Sino-US relations went through a bumpy 2010, and President Hu Jintao's state visit to the US at the start of this year was a sign of goodwill to patch up bilateral differences and forge stronger ties in 2011. But Sino-US ties spiraled downward thanks to US arms sales to Taiwan, the South China Sea dispute, tension over the yuan's exchange rate, and the recent Trans-Pacific Partnership proposed by Washington.

Despite efforts to stabilize bilateral ties, the past few years have gone through ups and downs. This can be attributed to various reasons, including lack of mutual trust at the non-government level and the absence of a strategic basis for cooperation at present.

For instance, a CNN poll last year showed 58 percent American respondents saying China's economic power was more of a threat to than an opportunity for the US, jumping from about 35 percent in 2000.

Apart from the break caused by political upheaval between 1989 and 1992, China and the US have gone through two stages of extensive cooperation. The first one started in 1972, when former US president Richard Nixon made a historic visit to China, and lasted until 1989.

The second stage, from 1992 to 2009, saw the establishment of a strategic basis for cooperation, with China seeking to engage in US-led international institutions and Washington accepting Beijing as its important partner in the globalization process.

During this period, China became a member of the World Trade Organization (in 2001), too, which signified the peak moment in bilateral cooperation.

The Copenhagen climate change conference in 2009, however, served as a turning point in bilateral ties. The mainstream Western media accused China of "hijacking" the negotiations. In return, China criticized the developed countries for lack of action in fulfilling their commitment and expressed concern over the rich nations' containment strategy against it.

China, Brazil, South Africa and India, also known as BASIC, together with the Group of 77, opposed the attempts of the US-led group and European Union member states to impose binding conditions against developing nations in Copenhagen.

The West, led by the US, is visibly uncomfortable with China's increasing influence in the developing world. It sees China as a future superpower. Seen from their different responses to the global financial crisis, China and the US differ in their development models and understanding of the international trend, which undermines Sino-US ties, especially the US' faith in the previous strategic basis for cooperation.

Several elements will determine the trend of China-US ties. On one hand, facing domestic problems such as a high jobless rate, the US is using a strategic policy to ease its presence across the rest of the world, but it remains ambitious as far as the Asia-Pacific region is concerned. On the other, the gap in the economic strength between Beijing and Washington is narrowing: earlier this year, the Standard Chartered Bank forecast that China will surpass the US as the world's largest economy by 2020 when it is expected to have a GDP of $24.6 trillion compared with the US' $23.3 trillion.

Besides, China is likely to expedite the modernization of its armed forces, narrowing the gap with the US in hard power. Given the US' active participation in Asia-Pacific issues and China's growing strength, even a defensive move by one can be easily misinterpreted by the other as aggressive.

The US has maintained its hedging policy toward China. The US recognizes China as a strategic partner. But it also views China as its greatest rival and aims to inflate the cost of China's economic development, and uses its advantages in Internet technology to spread confusion in China's cyberspace.

These show the US' overreaction to its declining strength and China's rise, and its overreaction together with widespread nationalism in China can push bilateral ties toward a vicious circle.

We are about to enter the New Year with a gloomy forecast, and 2012 is election year for both countries which are likely to add uncertainty to bilateral ties. That apart, data show that China overtook the US as the world's top manufacturer in terms of output last year and other economic indicators will probably deal a further blow to the US in the coming years.

American people will thus have to greet the New Year worrying that their country will loose more coveted positions on the international stage, which will aggravate their already pessimistic views on their economy. US President Barack Obama has a close-to-zero chance of fulfilling his pledge of reindustrializing his country before his term ends, and the US is unlikely to clear the cloud that has gathered over its economy in the short term.

Therefore, the US' policy toward China is expected to undergo a psychological transition, from enjoying the upper hand to sliding into a disadvantageous position, which will affect Sino-US relations profoundly. Asia-Pacific issues, including the tension on the Korean Peninsula, the transfer of power in Taiwan and the South China Sea dispute, too, will pave a rocky path for Sino-US relations next year.

Even then, the so-called tragedy of power politics can be prevented. After all, China and the US both have exercised self-restraint to avoid a formal confrontation, and there exist favorable conditions for improvement of bilateral ties. China and the US can foster a win-win relationship by working on the strategic bases of cooperation, including meeting common challenges amid globalization.

More importantly, China and the US should change their policies toward each other considering the changing world. Both should renew their strategic orientation, set up a better multi-sector mechanism for controlling and resolving conflicts, and stabilize bilateral ties. And the leaders of both sides have to agree at all levels that cooperation instead of contention is the only way out for their countries.

The author is a professor and the vice-dean of the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.

(China Daily 12/06/2011 page9)

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