Business / Economy

China's economic growth to stabilize

By Cheng Yingqi ( Updated: 2015-01-23 17:33

China's economy is likely to stop falling and begin to stabilize with a predicted 7.2 percent GDP growth in 2015, according to latest forecast report released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences on Friday.

The report, the 2015 China Economic Forecast and Outlook, was published by the Center for Forecasting Science under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The annual report focuses on China's major economic indicators.

According to the report, steady economic growth in 2015 is to be expected, though the GDP growth rate is still predicted to drop by 0.2 percentage points from that of 2014.

China's GDP growth rate has been on continuous decline since 2010, and had drooped to 7.4 percent in 2014, reaching the lowest record in 24 years, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

"China is going through an economic transformation period from 2011 to 2015, with the pace of growth adjusting from high-speed to medium-to-high-speed. However, with a series of important reform measures adopted by the government, such as expanding free trade zones and the ‘One Belt and One Road' initiative, the economy this year is likely to run smoothly," said Chen Xikang, an operational research expert who took part in writing the forecast.

The "One Belt and One Road" plan, refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century, was an initiative put forward by President Xi Jinping in 2013 to promote trade and communications in the region.

In 2014, bilateral trade volume between China and countries in the region enjoyed a 7 percent yearly increase.

"The economic growth rate is unlikely to drop below 6 percent in the coming one and a half decades," Chen said.

Chen predicts that the average annual GDP growth rate will hover between 6 percent to 8 percent till the year 2030, and then further decrease to 4 percent to 6 percent over the next 20 years, if not influenced by profound changes in external demand or government intervention.

Zhu Baoliang, director and chief economist of the Economic Forecast Department under the State Information Center, another forecasting research institute, is less optimistic for the year 2015.

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