The main event of the English cricket season gets underway on Thursday when the host faces South Africa in a series that will determine the world's best Test-playing nation. England, already rated No 1, only needs to draw the series to maintain its position, while South Africa must win to take the crown.
South Africa will present a formidable challenge. Its fearsome bowling attack is allied to a strong batting line-up and, usually, superb fielding. Also, the Saffers are good travelers, having not lost an away series since Sri Lanka in 2006. England, by contrast, was whitewashed 3-0 by Pakistan during the winter and narrowly scraped a drawn series against Sri Lanka. Moreover, the last team to beat England at home was, you guessed it, South Africa.
On the face of it, the teams are pretty evenly matched. For South Africa, Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla and the evergreen Jacques Kallis will prove tough competitors with the bat. However, England's pace attack - James Anderson, Stuart Broad and, probably, Tim Bresnan - has proved itself world class at home and will be champing at the bit to underline that fact.
For South Africa, pacemen Dale Steyn, currently rated the best bowler in the world, Morne Morkel and the up-and-coming Vernon Philander will provide the firepower. However, legspinner Imran Tahir may be the weakest link in the SA team and is likely to be out-bowled by his England slow-bowling counterpart, offspinner Graeme Swann.
England's batting has improved immeasurably over recent years, but still shows signs of frailty, something captain Andrew Strauss will be keen to sort out. England supporters will also want to see if the talented but inconsistent Ravi Bopara can finally nail a place after a stop-start Test career.
For England to win this series, it will need to hit the ground running, especially as the first Test is at the Kia Oval in south London, the closest thing to a home wicket the Saffers will see this year.
Other factors are at play, too. South Africa will be ultra-determined to win as a tribute to its long-term wicketkeeper Mark Boucher, who left the tour after a horrific eye injury forced him into retirement. Meanwhile, England may be unsettled by yet another spat between the mercurial Kevin Pietersen and the country's ruling body, the ECB. The team that handles adversity with the most aplomb will take a big step towards victory.
However, the biggest influence could be the weather. The English summer has been a washout, with rainfall of almost biblical proportions. Cricket fans will be hoping that the weather gods smile kindly on what promises to be a fascinating contest.
You can contact the writer at paultomic@chinadaily.com.cn
(China Daily 07/19/2012 page24)