Afghanistan likely to dominate summit

The 12th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit opened in Beijing on Tuesday, ahead of next week's International Conference on Afghanistan in Kabul on June 14.

Therefore, even though the agenda for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is one of finalizing its membership procedures, Afghanistan will still set the tone and tenor of proceedings.

Without doubt, Afghanistan has been the strongest reason for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization taking on a larger geopolitical role in the Eurasian region. And an expanded Shanghai Cooperation Organization is seen as most effective multilateral forum to stabilize not just post-US Afghanistan but also the larger arch of radical political Islam, from unrest in the Ferghana Valley across the Amu Darya into the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater.

Experts now describe the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an Asian NATO in the making, which, of course, remains a misnomer given that it has always projected itself as an alternative paradigm for regional security.

Nevertheless, it is the underlying urgency to get a grip on this complex situation that marks the critical backdrop to the Beijing summit and gives it special significance much beyond its participating countries. Especially as the United States will withdraw 23,000 troops from Afghanistan this summer, signaling its determination to exit Afghanistan before the end of 2014. However, it continues to flip-flop between engaging the so-called moderate Taliban and in its unconditionally supporting the Hamid Karzai government, and there are grave concerns about the security situation in Afghanistan after the US pulls out.

Meanwhile, from the late 1990s, when the then Shanghai Five, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan expanded their list of concerns from bilateral border demarcations and confidence building measures to regional energy security and counter-terrorism, the mechanism has been reluctant to add new members. This is partly because its small size was responsible for its inordinate success in achieving its initial aims and in ensuring peace and cooperation among its member countries.

As a result, while it added Uzbekistan as its sixth member in 2001, it has sought to accommodate other important stakeholders as observers, India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia, dialogue partners, Sri Lanka and Belarus, and special invitees Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. At the Beijing Summit, Turkey, a NATO member and potential Europe Union member, is likely to be accepted as a dialogue partner, while Afghanistan, a special invitee from 2006 and strategic partner of the United States from last month, may be given observer status. This reflects a change in the SCO's profile, making many more states interested in its initiatives.

In view of the rising tide of multilateralism across the Eurasian region and the rise of China and India, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's success has resulted in increasing number of countries, including the US, showing an interest in becoming a member. The increasing focus on Afghanistan has clearly added to the urgency of the long-standing issue of expanding membership.

There has been a running debate about India and Pakistan, observers since 2005 becoming full members. But the Beijing summit seems all set to advance their becoming full members. Russia and Kazakhstan have been supporting India's membership from 2005 and China has been supporting Pakistan for a long time, now the other members seem to have agreed in principle to expand the membership and the paperwork has already reached an advanced stage, it is no longer a question of if, but when.

India has been partially responsible for the fact that it is only now becoming a member. India's periodic soliciting of membership was circumscribed by its concerns about being bracketed with Pakistan, but the fast changing geopolitical situation in view of the planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its need to dispel the impression that its foreign policy has come under too much US influence has made New Delhi actively seek full membership. Besides, India is also trying to obtain full membership as that is expected to facilitate its participations in round-the-year routine activities from massive counter-terrorism exercises to trade ministers meetings.

Therefore, even while India's membership could take some time to finalize, the gradual opening up of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has already begun to show promise for India's participation in Eurasian initiatives.

The author is a professor of international studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

(China Daily 06/06/2012 page9)