Australia faces Hobson's choice

Last week, China's Defense Ministry described the move of the United States and Australia to upgrade their military ties as "Cold War" thinking, which many newspapers in the US and Australia chose to highlight. Part of the Washington-Canberra deal is to station American troops in Australia.

On Nov 16, US President Barack Obama visited Australia during the short interval between APEC and East Asia summits (EAS). Of all Obama's achievements, the most significant is the agreement for US stationing troops in Australia, whose number will grow from 250 from the beginning of next year to 2,500 in 2015. Besides, US fighter planes and warships will also visit and use Australian military bases frequently.

Australia is one of the closest US allies, an

d the move to station American troops in Australia reflects Washington's intentions.

First, the US can strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region by strengthening the US-Australian alliance. With the weakening of regional relations and the continuing global financial crisis, many countries, including Australia (according to its Defense White Paper), began doubting the US' influence in the region. Also, the US was not part of many regional cooperation mechanisms in East Asia. So the stationing of American troops in Australia can be seen as an attempt to increase both countries' influence in the region.

Second, the US wants to rebuild its leadership in the region by strengthening US-Australian ties. To "return" to East Asia, the US has floated the Tran-Pacific Partnership and tried to turn the EAS into a US-led regional security cooperation platform. But both require the active participation of Australia, which is one of the founding members of APEC and a propeller of regional security mechanisms.

The move will help restructure the distribution of US' regional force, too. After the end of the Cold War, the US found its traditional alliances "eroding" because of a change in regional situations, and its repeated emphasis on the importance of alliances went almost unheeded. So the US is now trying to build new alliance by using some long-term disputes between a rising China and other countries in the region.

A military alliance with the US means far more than security guarantee for Australia. It is a very important channel for it to join the mainstream Western community. But, at the same time, Australia must recognize the importance of its partnership with China, formed on the basis of trade and investment in the process of globalization. Though Australia faces the dilemma of choosing between the US and China, it thinks that its ties with the US are the most important.

The Washington-Canberra alliance is very old, and the US has provided equipment, intelligence, logistics and technology to Australia's armed forces for long. But according to the latest deal, the US will station "battle-ready" troops in Australia for the first time, which will inevitably compromise Canberra's regional "independence".

After the end of the Cold War, Australia sought to play an active role in the region as a middle power. In fact, it achieved good results by propelling APEC, establishing good relations with Asian countries and joining the Asia-Pacific community.

But by allowing the US to station troops on its soil, Australia will hurt regional interests. For instance, it will compromise its role as a "bridge" between East and West. Australia's importance in the region in recent times is that it is seen as a coordinator between China and the US. Agreeing to station American troops on its soil, a strategically important move, Australia will undermine its neutrality and create difficulties for itself in potential regional conflicts. Potentially, many conflicts could break out in Asia Pacific, and in case one does and American troops intervene, Australia would find itself in an embarrassing situation.

More importantly, the US-Australian military alliance will deal a blow to Sino-Australian relations. China's importance for Australia is multifold. Politically, China is an essential channel through which Australia can integrate fully into East Asia, which is now the world's fastest growing region.

Australia once tried to establish closer relations with Asia through ASEAN, but its unstable relations with Indonesia, opposition from Malaysia's former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and its weak relations with new ASEAN members yielded little result. Australia knows that China plays an increasingly important role in its integration into the Asia.

On the economic front, China is indispensable to Australia's success in coping with the financial crisis. Besides, Australia needs China's support to be part of almost all East Asian cooperation mechanisms.

Another considerable question is Australia's stance on Taiwan. Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd's administration was divided on how to treat separatists in China. Rudd reportedly said Australia should strengthen and expand its navy and the US should station troops in the region to deal with a rising China, which soured relations between China and Australia. Since Rudd was forced to resign, the current Australian administration should be more careful because China is already Australia's largest trading partner.

In other words, by agreeing to station American troops on its soil and trying to strike a new balance between Washington and Beijing, Australia is drifting farther away from China.

This is a challenge for China. Furthermore, if American troops are stationed in Australia, they will pose a greater strategic challenge for China and East Asia. So US-Australian bilateral ties will have a multilateral effect on the region. That's why, instead of asking China to join the US-Australian military drill, Australia should simulate multilateral military cooperation to counterbalance the negative influences of some countries in the region.

The author is deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 12/07/2011 page9)