Past imperfect, future tense

The Kan government's predicament has been further aggravated by the all-out offensive launched by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the largest opposition party. The LDP, together with New Komeito and other opposition parties, moved a no-confidence motion in the Lower House of Parliament on June 2, seeking Kan's resignation or dissolution of the parliament for re-elections. Worse, rifts within Kan's own party have escalated further. For example, Ichiro Ozawa has threatened to join the growing ranks of opposition parties to demand Kan's resignation.

According to a survey, conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Tokyo TV in early May, 74 percent of the respondents hope Kan would step down. Though Kan survived the no-confidence motion and succeeded in thwarting the combined attack of the opposition parties, he may have to resign in the near future, throwing Japanese politics into a new crisis.

The fierce power struggle in Japan, its slow progress in overcoming the impact of the triple crisis and the subsequent power shortage have cast a shadow over Japan's economic recovery. These developments have also forced the Japanese government's debts to rocket, which is already double that of the country's economic output.

Japan's continuously falling current account surplus has already weakened its domestic funding foundation to account for the growing national debt. And even after the defeat of the no-confidence motion, political dissension within the country is expected to grow despite the United States' promise to consolidate its alliance with Japan.

The US regards Japan's smooth economic recovery as a crucial factor for maintaining security in the Asia-Pacific region. But at a time when US President Barack Obama is preparing for his re-election campaign, it is uncertain how his administration will deal with the intractable issue of the US military base in Japan.

Japan's industrial rejuvenation, its trade development with other Asian countries, and the success of its environmental protection measures and energy cooperation plans will depend largely on its domestic political situation.

Since Japan is an important power in Asia, the turbulence in its domestic politics is likely to disrupt the series of diplomatic agenda Asian countries have mapped out to execute with it and push regional cooperation into a difficult position.

The author is a research scholar with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

(China Daily 06/20/2011 page8)

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