Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Chinese economy robust for next decade

By Zhang Monan (China Daily) Updated: 2015-01-20 08:03

China is also undergoing an internal rebalancing of investment and consumption. As it stands, declining growth in fixed-asset investment - from 33 percent in 2009 to 16 percent this year - is placing significant downward pressure on output growth. Investment's contribution to GDP growth fell from 8.1 percentage points in 2009 to 4.2 last year.

To be sure, Chinese imports remain focused on intermediate goods, with imports of raw materials like iron ore having surged over the last decade. But, in the last few years, the share of imported consumption goods and mixed-use (consumption and investment) finished products, such as automobiles and computers, has increased considerably. This trend will contribute to a more balanced global environment.

A lag in technological adoption and innovation is contributing to the growing divide between China and the Western developed countries, but as China's per capita income increases, its consumer market matures, and its industrial structure is transformed, demand for capital equipment and commercial services will increase considerably. Indeed, over the next decade, China's high-tech market is expected to reach annual growth rates of 20 to 40 percent.

If the US loosens restrictions on exports to China and maintains its 18.3 percent share of China's total imports, US exports of high-tech products to China stand to reach more than $60 billion over this period. This would accelerate industrial upgrading and innovation in China, while improving global technological transmission and expanding related investment in developed countries.

China's economy may be decelerating, but its prospects remain strong. Its GDP may have reached $10 trillion in 2014. Once it weathers the current rebalancing, it could well be stronger than ever.

Zhang Monan is a fellow of the China Information Center.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Most Viewed Today's Top News