Silk Road Fund to aid long-term projects

Eight risks Silk Road Fund faces, by Wang Tianling, China Daily

China's experience abroad shows the great potential of the proposals as well as possible pitfalls

China put forward two major initiatives to promote trade with its neighbors: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (known in short as the Belt and Road Initiative) and the $40 billion Silk Road Fund.

However, given the risky climate in which we are living and the experience of Chinese enterprises overseas, we must be aware that professional risk management in compliance with international norms is key to the development of both these initiatives.

There are eight risks China needs to consider.

First, it should avoid an investment frenzy caused by grand ambitions and political preference.

The country has suffered a great deal from putting politics ahead of economic sustainability. Examples are the Albanian projects and some African projects China carried out during its three-year famine (1959-61) and the "cultural revolution" (1966-76).

When developing the Silk Road Fund, it is essential that we pursue both political and diplomatic benefits in addition to ensuring sustainable development of the fund.

Second, China should avoid risks posed by political changes in other countries.

Many of China's neighbors are undergoing complicated political, economic and social changes, and it is uncertain how these countries will develop afterwards. A case in point is the Myitsone Dam project in Myanmar. A Chinese investor made a huge investment in the project ($3.6 billion for its first phase) before the new Myanmar government suddenly suspended it in 2011.

We must improve analysis and prediction of the political and economic situations in major projects' host countries. A method should also be put in place to raise funds and run projects in case of sudden changes brought on by political shifts.

Third, China should avoid the risks of political turbulence in some regions.

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