Two-horse race looming

Sunday's European Grand Prix suggests we will see a two-horse race for the 2012 World Drivers' Championship. Or, more precisely, Fernando Alonso's prancing horse and Sebastian Vettel's Red Bull.

It's not easy for two drivers to stand out in modern Formula One because there is such depth of talent and the cars are more closely matched than at any time in the sport's history.

There are six champions on the grid this year and the first seven races had different winners - both facts setting new records.

These days it is necessary to push for every lap of the 300-kilometer race and be constantly alive to opportunity.

That is how Alonso completed an extraordinary streak of 20 point-scoring finishes with a memorable victory for Ferrari in Valencia.

The Spaniard blended his fabulous skills with inspired moves and finely judged risk-taking to climb up from a poor 11th at the start. A perfect example was the restart after a mid-race safety car period: the double world champion, wide awake, metaphorical pirate's knife between his teeth, got a good run up on Romain Grosjean - outbraked the Frenchman and passed his Lotus around the outside with not a millimeter to spare.

Lewis Hamilton had been similarly impressive moments before - mugging the other Lotus of Kimi Raikkonen - and Grosjean was the star of the very start of the race, executing a precise pass under heavy braking. But these two suffered bad luck and failed to finish which, of course, is part of the mix.

Which brings us to Vettel. There were so many upgrades on Red Bull's cars in Spain that one team member suggested it was 'Version D'. But it was the alternator which failed on the reigning champion's car, immediately after the restart (as it did for Grosjean shortly afterwards). This is a part common across the Renault-powered teams: RBR, Lotus, Caterham and Williams F1. So any hopes that Adrian Newey might have incorporated fragility into the latest RB8 are unrealistic.

Vettel took an easy-looking pole position on Saturday and was in the lead by 20 seconds before the safety car appeared on Sunday. With that pace the revised Red Bull should allow Mark Webber and Vettel to quickly overcome the 20 and 26 points by which they trail Alonso.

Recent history suggests Vettel will make best use of the improved machinery. What might save Alonso is the absence of competition from within his Scuderia Ferrari. While Webber and Vettel share points (and probably with Hamilton and the Lotus drivers) any day that a Ferrari can finish on the podium will be Alonso's.

After a successful career on the track, Matthew Marsh now works at JMI - the world's leading motor sport marketing company. He can be reached at mmarsh@justmarketing.com.

(China Daily 06/28/2012 page23)