Maintaining world peace

To prevent them sparking a catastrophic conflict between powers, strategic misjudgments must be avoided and the folly of allies curbed

One hundred years ago World War I broke out. And in July, 120 years ago, the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 broke out. In July, 77 years ago, Japan launched its full invasion of China. And in July, 61 years ago, the cease-fire agreement of the Korean War (1950-1953) was signed. People should reflect on the series of wars.

Statistics show that since the 36th century BC there have been more than 14,600 wars, which have claimed more than 3 billion lives. And from the end of World War II to 1994 there were more than 200 military conflicts, which killed millions of people.

As the Crimea crisis has deteriorated there was widespread concern that the United States and Russia might end up in a militarily confrontation.

Considering the destructive consequences that would result from a war between two military powers such as the US and Russia, there is only a very slim possibility that they would choose to engage in a head-to-head military clash. However, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out that a strategic misjudgment might spark a conflict between powers.

There is also the possibility that big powers may become embroiled in an armed conflict against their better judgment by binding their interests to other countries. For instance, the US has time and again declared that the US-Japan security pact applies to China's Diaoyu Islands. That means that should there be an armed conflict between China and Japan over the islands, the US would inevitably join if it is serious about its stance. A war pitting China against the US and Japan would inevitably spell disaster for the whole region.

The current dispute between China and Japan is reminiscent of the Sino-Japan War of 1894-1895. Some even depict current relations between the two countries as being similar to their ties on the eve of the war 120 years ago.

However, an analysis of their relations now shows this is not the case.