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Ecuador, faced with declining revenue from oil exports and the region's smallest reserves, will probably ask China for another loan to finance its budget deficit this year, Capital Economics Ltd said.
The OPEC nation's economy, which uses the dollar as its official currency, risks a "hard landing" as oil prices fall below levels needed to sustain outlays, Michael Henderson, a London-based economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
"A failure to accumulate savings during a run-up in oil prices means that the dollarized economy now looks highly vulnerable to a sustained period of weaker energy prices," Henderson said. "Policy has been heavily pro-cyclical on the way up and there is now an increased chance of a hard landing as external demand slows."