Business / Economy

Urban disposable income to quadruple by 2030: ANZ Bank

By Wu Yiyao ( Updated: 2015-12-10 10:06

A V-shaped rebound of China's GDP growth could start to shape up from 2018 given that China's ongoing structural reforms will boost consumption and optimize growth patterns, said Liu Ligang, chief economist with ANZ Bank's China operation.

He made the comment Wednesday in Shanghai during the launch of the bank's research report on China's consumption market, which surveyed Chinese consumers' spending on housing, food, education, services, health care, recreation, transportation and durable goods.

By 2030, China's urban disposable income per capita will almost quadruple, over 300 million new middle-class members (with household income of 100,000 yuan [$15,560] to 150,000 yuan) will emerge in China's urban areas, and this new class of consumers will spend three times as much in 2030 as they do now, the report said.

The report, quoting data of consultancy and research services provider McKinsey, said that discretionary spending will account for 45 percent of household spending in 2025, up from 34 percent in 2000.

"This should produce significant changes in spending patterns, particularly spending on durable goods and services", it said.

Sales of durable goods to rural households are nearly 20 times higher than that of a decade ago as disposable incomes grow staggeringly, the report said.

By 2020, China's private consumption will represent 44 percent of its GDP and 70 percent of the size of the US consumer market, the report said.

"Transport & telecom, real estate, education, recreation, medical will greatly benefit from rising consumption and emerging middle class," said Liu.

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