Transatlantic 'America First'
Beyond the immediate consequences of the Iran conflict, European analysts are assessing whether the new-look Congress could help ease tensions over trade and the broader direction of transatlantic relations.
Marian Duris, a foreign policy expert and adviser at the European Parliament, told China Daily that Democratic control of Congress could introduce an institutional counterweight to Trump's foreign policy, but warned against expecting a fundamental reversal.
"Europe should not mistake it for a return to the pre-Trump situation," Duris said. "Many of the current phenomena and the administration's strategic interests will persist. The new atmosphere in Congress could strengthen legislative oversight of the president's use of executive powers in trade policy, particularly regarding the imposition of unilateral tariffs."
Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said the midterm election results were broadly consistent with Europe's most optimistic expectations, particularly because Democratic control of Congress could provide a counterweight to the White House.
Speaking to China Daily in Paris, Cui said European governments were looking to the Democrats to exert influence in two major policy areas: Ukraine and trade.
"For the past two years, changes in Washington's approach to Ukraine had increased the financial and military assistance burden on European countries, prompting them to pin hope on the new Congress helping to constrain further shifts in US policy," he said.
On trade, Cui noted that the EU's acceptance of a tariff arrangement with Washington had generated disagreements among member states, including France, amid concerns about the impact on European industries and competitiveness.
Cui cautioned that initial optimism should give way to a more realistic assessment of the long-term relationship.
"Prioritizing American interests, particularly domestic political interests, has become a persistent feature of US policymaking under both major parties," he said, adding that a Democrat-dominated US Congress would not necessarily translate into fundamentally different economic or security policies.
Cui emphasized that the transformation of transatlantic relations reflected long-term changes in American politics, rather than the outcome of a single election.
"Their words might differ, but both parties in the US adopt a de facto 'America First' attitude," he said.
Europe should, therefore, seek to manage the transition in US politics in such a way as to achieve a "soft landing" instead of a "hard landing", while preparing for lasting changes in Washington's approach to its allies, concluded Cui.
The administration of previous president Joe Biden, for example, signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law in 2022, which sparked transatlantic trade tensions over subsidies favoring US-based manufacturing, something that the current administration is also doing, by pursuing policies aimed at protecting American industries and encouraging domestic production. Similarly, despite successive changes between Democratic and Republican administrations, the US has consistently pressed its European allies to shoulder a greater share of the defense burden.
Duris similarly stressed that Europe's future relationship with the US should not depend on which party controls Congress.
"Europe's approach to the United States, regardless of who occupies the White House or has a majority in Congress, should always be based on sovereignty, respect, and the ability to defend its own interests," he said, adding that Europe should maintain constructive relations with major powers without accepting a subordinate position.
"European governments that do not approach relations and policies ideologically do not need to prepare for changes or the outcomes of the democratic will of citizens in other countries. Such governments are always prepared to work pragmatically and to communicate in a respectful manner," Duris said.
