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Europe weighs up US midterm power shift

Though Democrats will have stronger checks on White House, experts say continent needs to prioritize strategic autonomy

By ZHANG ZHOUXIANG in Brussels and ZHENG WANYIN in London | China Daily Global

Updated: 2026-11-13 09:28

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A man looks out over the water as a small boat passes cargo ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran on Oct 24. AMIRHOSEIN KHORGOOI/ISNA/AP

Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of the London-based Chatham House policy think tank, wrote in a commentary that the cost of living has become a major concern for voters in the US as well.

Similarly, Javier Carbonell, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, noted on Nov 4 that affordability and economic grievances had emerged as central concerns during the US elections.

Despite the urgency created by the soaring energy and living costs, analysts and experts remain cautious about a swift end to the conflict, pointing out that political shifts will not automatically lower energy prices or stop the fighting.

Virgil-Daniel Popescu, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, was quoted by Euronews as saying, "What matters is whether the United States and Iran can move toward de-escalation." An agreement between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — if achievable — would mark a major breakthrough for Europe, as continued shipping restrictions in the vital waterway have driven up energy prices.

However, the political and military trajectory of the conflict remains highly uncertain.

Maddox argued that a newly configured US Congress could challenge any prolonged US military deployment in the Gulf, though the White House might still order further strikes to secure concessions from Tehran.

Li Zhengdong, an associate research fellow at Ningbo University's Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation, noted that even if Democrats seek to end the war, President Trump could exercise his veto power to block their efforts. "The conflict could, therefore, possibly drag on, leaving considerable uncertainty over how the situation will develop," he said, adding that it is still too early to predict a quick resolution.

Carbonell concluded by emphasizing the broader political lesson for Europe: "Material well-being, anti-establishment sentiment, and political credibility will remain decisive forces shaping democratic competition."

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