El Nino escalates China's air pollution challenge this winter

China faces a tougher challenge to control its air pollution this autumn and winter because of an El Nino phenomenon that has formed and could strengthen further, potentially developing into a super El Nino event, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

An El Nino is a periodic event that involves warming currents in the Pacific Ocean.

In a news conference on Tuesday, Pei Xiaofei, the ministry's spokesman, said the phenomenon could weaken the East Asian winter monsoon, reduce cold-air activity in northern China, and worsen atmospheric conditions for the dispersal of air pollutants, increasing the risk of prolonged and widespread heavy pollution.

Autumn and winter are already seasons with high air pollution risks because the season usually features a stable atmosphere and a temperature inversion, which prevents the normal churn of the atmosphere, making it easy for pollutants to accumulate, while heating supply increases emissions.

During the latest El Nino event, China experienced a 16-day haze episode spanning from late 2023 to early 2024. It affected about 2.7 million square kilometers — more than 28 percent of the country's land area — raised the annual average PM2.5 particulate matter concentration by 2.4 micrograms per cubic meter and caused heavy pollution in almost 100 cities, Pei said.

To cope with the grim air pollution control situation, the ministry will update heavy-pollution emergency plans, refine differentiated controls for key industries, and assign emission-reduction measures to individual companies and production lines, Pei said.

He said local governments will also introduce targeted controls by time, region, sector, and pollution level while avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach.

Pei also highlighted measures the ministry will roll out to further improve pollution forecasting and early-warning systems.

Currently, in China, the forecast accuracy for PM2.5 pollution episodes has exceeded 90 percent, while accuracy in predicting pollution severity has been above 80 percent, he said.

Pei added that the country has established a three-tier response system covering provincial, municipal, and county-level governments. The warning system has expanded nationwide, and responses can now be launched when moderate pollution is forecast to continue, rather than waiting for consecutive days of heavy pollution.

Authorities will also strengthen enforcement against excessive emissions, falsified monitoring data, and other violations through online monitoring, satellite remote sensing, electricity-use tracking, and on-site inspections. During heavy-pollution episodes, targeted surprise inspections will be conducted in problem areas.