Super Typhoon Bavi poised to unleash severe rainfall and disruptions

Forecasters have warned that Super Typhoon Bavi could unleash widespread severe rainfall and secondary disasters after making landfall, with its remnants expected to combine with other weather systems and disrupt transport.

At 8 pm on Thursday, the typhoon's center was about 1,010 kilometers southeast of Keelong, Taiwan, packing maximum sustained winds of up to 173 km per hour, the National Meteorological Center said.

Bavi is forecast to make landfall on Saturday evening between Fuqing in Fujian province and Wenling in Zhejiang province, with winds of 137 to 162 km/h. It is then expected to move northwest while gradually weakening.

The center issued an orange typhoon alert, the second-highest level in China's four-tier weather warning system, for Bavi on Thursday.

Speaking at a media briefing on Thursday, Xiang Chunyi, chief forecaster at the center, outlined two possible tracks for the storm once it moves ashore.

"Current projections show Bavi could move west toward the border area of Hubei, Anhui and Henan provinces and gradually weaken and dissipate. Alternatively, it may turn northeast and transition into an extratropical cyclone," she said.

"Whichever path it takes, we need to be especially vigilant against the secondary disasters triggered after landfall," she added.

The center warned of heavy to torrential rainfall from Thursday to Friday across a broad swath of the country. In central and southern Hebei province and northern Shandong province, thunderstorm winds could exceed 117 km/h, and tornadoes could not be ruled out, the center said.

On Saturday, Zhejiang and Fujian are expected to experience the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rainfall, with parts of southern Zhejiang and northeastern Fujian forecast to receive between 250 and 400 millimeters of rain, said Weather China, a website affiliated with the China Meteorological Administration.

Explaining why typhoons tracking northward are often more dangerous, Xiang said the risks go well beyond the storm's own intensity.

A key factor is the continuous supply of moisture after landfall, often fueled by southeasterly or southwesterly flows on the southern flank of the subtropical high, creating a persistent channel of water vapor into the storm.

"If the typhoon collides with cold air as it pushes north, atmospheric instability increases dramatically, releasing a tremendous amount of energy and causing rainfall intensity to surge," Xiang said.

On Thursday afternoon, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a yellow alert for geological hazards, the second-lowest level of the four-tier warning system.

The warning covers parts of northern Beijing, western Hebei, northeastern Shanxi province, southwestern Guangdong province, southern Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, southeastern and western Yunnan province, central Gansu province, and eastern Qinghai province.

The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters raised its emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention from Level IV, the lowest of the four-tier system, to Level III at 5 pm on Thursday, citing the typhoon's high intensity, wide reach, and strong potential for damage. Further adjustments will be made as the situation develops.

Feng Lei, a senior engineer at the CMA's public meteorological service center, told the briefing that Bavi would bring widespread heavy rain and strong winds to eastern China, disrupting road, rail and coastal shipping transport.

She warned that the risk of weather-related traffic hazards on highways was high.

"Torrential rain will make roads slippery and waterlogged, reduce visibility along routes such as the Beijing-Harbin and Beijing-Shanghai expressways and could trigger slope failures and landslides," Feng said.

With the storm striking during a peak travel period, she urged scenic spots to suspend cable cars, water-based activities and halt outdoor tours.

lihongyang@chinadaily.com.cn