结 论

本文分析了美国对中国崛起的反应及其对中美关系的影响。笔者从全球和地区层面分析了小布什政府的外交政策，并重点分析了美国的亚洲政策和中美关系的发展。笔者认为不同的战略环境决定了小布什政府在东亚地区实行和中东不一样的政策。前文所述小布什政府外交三个特点：单边主义、先发制人和政权颠覆等在亚洲并不适用。政策差异不仅源于亚太和中东地区不同的战略环境，也在于美外交政策对不同地区优先顺序的不同。由高到低的外交政策重点转化（如台湾问题）反映了小布什政府政策和态度的变迁。当我们审视中美关系和台湾问题时，确实可以看出“9.11”事件以后中美关系明显改善，而同时台湾也明显感受到美国为了阻止其法理独立而不断施加的压力。中国在如此有利的国际态势形势下不能过分乐观，因为随着国际环境的变化，美国外交政策重点也会发生变化。

总的来说，中美关系是一种“互为警惕的相互依赖”。中美可能是本世纪仅有的保持全球稳定和繁荣的两个超级大国（守成和崛起的两个大国）。在战略、经济和政治等全球各个方面，中美两国彼此相互依存。与此同时，中美双方也相互警惕对方的举动，因此笔者称这种关系为“互为警惕的相互依赖”。

在分析了小布什政府第二届任期的美国亚洲政策及其对中美关系的影响之后，本文进一步探讨了北京为和平崛起而采取的多种政策选择。

美国防止台独趋势发展的做法已对台湾岛内产生了相当的影响。中美在这一领域的合作将继续得以加强。北京不应该担心在国际领域中谈论台湾问题（尽管台湾是中国的内政），因为台湾问题由于美国的长期卷入而早已国际化了。中国应该认识到美国（包括日本）卷入台湾问题是不可否认的现实趋势，他们为各自利益还会不同程度地卷入台湾问题。

根据这一现实，北京可以考虑让联合国安理会五个常任理事国，以及日本、印度承诺不鼓励台独发展的共识。[49]由此中国面临的由台独带来的政治压力将大幅度缓解，在这样的情况下，中国亦会允许台湾在经济和文化事务中享有更大的国际空间。

鉴于2005年2月美日发表的联合声明已将台湾纳入其共同战略目标，北京应该意识到90年代后期对日本政策并不成功（如果不算完全失败的话）。没人会否认历史问题的重要性，以及小泉持续参拜靖国神社伤害了中国人民的感情。但是，问题是如何解决这一问题并将这个问题和中国的战略目标挂钩，以及历史问题是否应损害双边关系并给包括台湾问题在内的中国国家利益带来不利影响。北京应该全面反思对日政策，并应看清东京公开表示将台湾纳入美日安保同盟已揭示了目前中国对日政策的失败。

中国需要学会用更敏感有效的方式表达其对另一国家外交政策的不满。例如，中国对朝鲜问题的处理就十分敏感，但同时也在适当时机表达出对朝某些行动的不满。例如，中国在平壤进行导弹试验后，宣布暂停三天的石油供应。通过这种方式，中国既显示了自己的立场又保留各自的面子。同样有技巧的外交行动也可以用来针对日本和美国。在京沪高速铁路建设、六方会谈穿梭外交（美日极为重视）中都提供了进行外交谈判的机会。[50] 但是在参与这种外交游戏时，中国须非常谨慎和小心。

根据权力转移理论，美国最重要的外交政策目标应该是尽量避免中美两国之间爆发战争。美国充分理解台湾问题是中国的核心利益。中美在台湾的军事对抗，“即便早期取得胜利，也不能保证台湾岛的长久安全”[51]。因此，“美国军事胜利会损害美国长远的安全利益”。[52]权力转移理论建议美国应把中国纳入其盟友框架内，即便不行，也应接触中国，使之融入现有国际体系并接受现存的国际制度规范。按照这个逻辑，一些专家建议中国加入北约或类似的机制，这样可以用相同的利益来整合不同的国家之间的关系。小布什政府的对华政策中包括很多这种长期的战略考量。同时不同学派在华盛顿对华决策圈中争论也很激烈，如“新保守主义”、“自由接触派”、“权力转移派”等。正如《大西洋月刊》的一篇文章所指出，“与中国卷入一场战争很容易（例如在台湾问题上），但困难的是如何结束战争”。[53]

综上所述，理解小布什政府外交政策方向对中国新世纪的发展极为关键。众所周知，从国内和国际角度来说，中国都处于深刻的变革过程之中。中国崛起吸引了世界每个角落的关注。中国如何和美国相处是其最重要的外交课题之一。保持中美稳定合作的关系并将争议置于可控的范畴内对于亚太地区的和平稳定十分关键，当然这也符合中美两国人民的基本利益。

（于宏源 译）

（本文系作者参加“中国之崛起及其意义”国际研讨会[中国上海，复旦大学，2005年10月5-8日]所提交的论文，原文为英文。）

[①] Phillip P. Pan, “Rumsfeld Chides China for ‘Mixed Signals’”, The Washington Post, October 20, 2005, pp A16 & A18.

[②] Robert Zoellick, “Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?” Issued by the U.S. Department of State, September 21, 2005. Available at www.state.gov/s/d/rem/53682.htm

[③] Michael H. Armacost, “What’s Ahead for US Policy in Asia?” PacNet 1, January 6, 2005. Accessed from listserv distributed by pacnet@hawaiibiz.r.com.

[④] Harry Harding, “Change and Continuity in the Bush Administration’s Asia Policy” Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee (eds.) George W. Bush and East Asia: A First Term Assessment, Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2005, p. 31.

[⑤] Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, “America Unbound: The Bush revolution in foreign policy,” Brookings Review, Vol. 21, No. 4, Fall 2000: pp. 2-6.

[⑥] Edward Cody. “New Talks on North Korea Open With Fresh Strategy” The Washington Post July 26, 2005: p. A15.

[⑦] Benjamin Schwartz. “Managing China’s Rise.” The Atlantic Monthly Vol. 295, Number 5, June 2005: pp. 27-28.

[⑧] Anne Scott Tyson. “Chinese buildup seen as threat to region.” The Washington Post July 20, 2005: p.A16.

[⑨] James A. Kelly. “George W. Bush and Asia: An Assessment” Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee (eds.) George W. Bush and East Asia: A First Term Assessment, Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2005, pp. 15-30.

[⑩] Gerald L. Curtis, “East Asia, Regionalism, and US National Interests: How Much Change?”

American Foreign Policy Interests, 26, 2004, pp. 199-208.

[11] Francis Fukuyama. "Re-Envisioning Asia." Foreign Affairs. Vol. 84, No. 1, January/February 2005: pp. 75-87.

[12] Phillip P. Pan, "Rumsfeld Chides China for 'Mixed Signals'", The Washington Post, October 20, 2005, pp A16 & A18.

[13] Douglas Lemke and Ronald L. Tammen. "Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China" International Interactions, Vol. 29, 2003: pp. 269-271.

[14] Robert Kagan. "The Illusion of 'Managing' China." The Washington Post May 15, 2005: p. B07.

[15] Douglas Lemke and Ronald L. Tammen. "Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China." International Interactions Vol. 29, 2003: pp. 269-271.

[16] Emilio Casetti. "Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?" Journal of Peace Research Vol. 40, No. 6, 2003: p. 672.

[17] Jacek Kugler and Ronald Tammen. "Regional Challenge: China's Rise to Power" Asia-Pacific Region in Transition. Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2004, pp. 50-51.

[18] Tammen, Ronald, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, p. 31.

[19] Efird, Brian and Jacek Kugler and Gaspare M. Genna. "From War to Integration: Generalizing Power Transition Theory" International Interactions Vol. 29, 2003: pp. 293-313.

[20] Tammen, Ronald, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, p. 31.

[21] Tammen, Ronald, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, pp. 164-167.

[22] Glenn Kessler, "U.S. Says China Must Address Its Intentions," The Washington Post, September 22, 2005: p. A 16.

[23] Brent Scowcroft's answer to the question raised by the author during a dinner meeting at Brookings Institution, September 19, 2005.

[24] Robert Zoellick, "Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?" Issued by the U.S. Department of State, September 21, 2005. Available at www.state.gov/s/d/rem/53682.htm

[25] Quadrennial Defense Review Report, Issued by the US Department of Defense, September 30, 2001.

[26] Tammen, Ronald, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, p. 168.

[27] See Colin L. Powell, "Interview with Mike Chinoy of CNN International TV" and "Interview with Anthony Yuen of Phoenix TV," October 25, 2004. Available at http://www.state.gov/ secretary/rm/37366pf.htm.

[28] Robert A. Scalapino, "Asia-Pacific Security Issues and US Policy," American Foreign Policy Interests Vol. 26, 2004: p. 299.

[29] Shijie Ribao [World Journal] January 14, 2005: p. 1.

[30] Trevor Corson. "Strait-jacket." The Atlantic Monthly December 2004, Vol. 294, No. 5: pp. 54-58.

[31] David Barboza and Joseph Kahn. "China says it will no longer peg its currency to the US dollar." The New York Times July 21, 2005.

[32] Ben White. "Bidding to Become a Bigger Player." The Washington Post July 19, 2005.

[33] "China's complex US connections." San Francisco Chronicle July 17, 2005,

[34] "Senator Dorgan introduces bill to ban Cnooc buy of Unocal." Dow Jones Newswire.

[35] Zheng Yingping. "Meiguo yu zhudao dongya yitihua jincheng" [The US would like to lead the process of East-Asia community-building]. Zhongguo Zhanlue Guancha [China Strategic Review], Vol. 2, 2005: pp. 36-41.

[36] Hughes, Neil C. "A Trade War with China?" Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005, Vol. 84, No. 4, pp. 94-106.

[37] Edward Cody. "China Protests US-Japan Accord" The Washington Post February 21, 2005: p. A24.

[38] David Lampton. "What Growing Chinese Power Means for America." Testimony before Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, June 7, 2005.

[39] Edward Cody. "Improved Atmosphere is Seen as N. Korea Arms Talks Resume" The Washington Post July 27, 2005: p. A16.

[40] Anthony Faiola and Philip P. Pan, "N. Korea Declaration Draws World Concern: Nuclear Arms Assertion Spurs Calls to Revive Talks" The Washington Post, February 11, 2005: pp. A1, A20.

[41] Anthony Faiola, "US, Japan Worry about N. Korean Withdrawal From Talks", The Washington Post, February 20, 2005: pA30.

[42] [Editorial] "Human rights of N.K. refugees," Korea Herald, September 6, 1999, accessed from www.koreaherald.co.kr/news/1999/09/__03/19990906_0318.htm

[43] Aidan Foster-Carter, "The Six-Party Failure" PacNet 6A, February 11, 2005. Accessed from listserv distributed by pacnet@hawaiibiz.rr.com.

[44] Ralph A. Cossa, "Pyongyang Raises the Stakes", PacNet 6, February 10, 2005. Accessed from listserv distributed by pacnet@hawaiibiz.rr.com.

[45] Edward Cody. "China Protests US-Japan Accord." The Washington Post February 21, 2005: p. A24. Also see Shijie Ribao [World Journal], February 19, 2005, p. 1.

[46] Paper presented by Robert Sutter, "Recent convergence in China-US views-Rethinking US Policy Options," International conference on US Taiwan Policy and the Dynamics of the Taipei-Beijing-Washington Triangle, January 28, 2005, American University, Washington, DC.

[47] "Anti-Submarine Alliance Among US, Japan, and Taiwan Triangle Against PLA." Qiao Bao [China Press] December 3, 2004: p. B4.

[48] Dan Blumenthal. "Unhelpful China." The Washington Post December 6, 2004: p. A21. Also see Robin Wright. "Iran's New Alliance with China Could Cost US Leverage." The Washington Post November 17, 2004: p. A21.

[49] This comment was made by Dr. Robert Pastor during the international conference on US Taiwan Policy and the Dynamics of the Taipei-Beijing-Washington Triangle, January 28, 2005, American University, Washington, DC.

[50] "US, Japan Worry about N. Korean Withdrawal from Talks." The Washington Post February 20, 2005: p. A30.

[51] Ronald Tammen, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, p173.

[52] Ronald Tammen, et al. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House Publishers, 2000, p173.

[53] Robert Kaplan. "How we would fight China." The Atlantic Monthly Vol. 295, No. 5: June 2005, p. 54.

文章来源： 《国际问题论坛》2005年冬季号（总第41期）