(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-06-04 18:59

Forecast errors have consequences

Short-term forecasts should help people take precautions against an earthquake. But living in a tent or in the open air, especially if the weather was bad, could cause serious health problems and even deaths, especially if the forecast was not specific and the efforts dragged on for weeks or months. The direct and indirect costs might be huge, perhaps even comparable to the damage caused by a quake that hit unprepared people, the same expert said.

A successful forecast would justify the cost of preparation, however high, but a false alarm would make experts into scapegoats. So scientists were cautious.

Entrusted with the task of prediction, CEA experts had frequently found themselves asking what they should do.

The recent prediction of possible strong aftershocks in May 19-20 in the Wenchuan and neighboring areas was just such a trying moment. "We hesitated for hours," recalled a CEA senior researcher who was involved in the decision-making. The forecast was finally made out of a keen desire by the experts, perhaps also to redeem their prior failure.

The forecast turned out to be a for-nothing. But the public understood, and it exacted little extra cost on the affected communities, which were already on alert for any trembling underfoot.

Evidence, reasoning are key

Earthquake scientists anchor their studies on scientific evidence and reasoning. They would propose issuing an official forecast only when they believed the evidence supported doing so. This would be their defense and philosophy. Blame was part of life in the profession, one observer said.

Ill-supported predictions were like gambling. They were usually based on inadequate evidence or mere intuition. It would be luck if a prediction like that proved correct. But a real scientist would not do that, the same observer said.

"If quake scientists have done their job in accordance with the norm, they should not be blamed, whether for false alarms or zero alarms," said Zhang Dan, a veteran media consultant in Beijing.

In the Wenchuan case, the absence of an alarm was not dereliction of duty, at least not judging by the CEA experts' accounts.

Nonetheless, seismologists might feel even deeper sorrow than others, perhaps wishing that their forecasting ability was more advanced.

"I couldn't hold back tears in the office," said a scientist who asked not to be identified. "At the sight of the appalling scenes, especially the suffering of children, who wouldn't be disturbed?"

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