Business / Economy

China's debt stands at over 250% of GDP, says report

By Jiang Xueqing ( Updated: 2014-07-22 16:08

China's debt went to more than 250 percent of the GDP by the end of June, according to a report released by Standard Chartered Plc on Monday.

In the current economic situation, the nation's credit growth should not have a momentum to accelerate strongly, the report said.

Sheng Songcheng, head of the statistics department at the central bank, said on July 15 that total social financing is likely to hit about 18.5 trillion yuan ($2.98 trillion) in 2014 and new yuan loans will possibly reach 9.5 trillion yuan ($1.53 trillion).

The report said these figures indicate China is having a steady credit growth rather than a new surge in financing.

China continues to increase leverage, said analysts at Standard Chartered. They estimated that credit growth reached 19 percent in the second quarter of 2014 while nominal GDP growth remained at 9 percent.

In a previous report on June 12, the analysts said China's debt burden is much higher than at any time in recent memory. They do not believe a debt crisis is just around the corner, partly because some of this debt is 'evergreen-able', but the level of debt is clearly dragging on investment and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

"The key quandary for policy makers today is not how to deleverage per se, but rather how to deleverage 'beautifully'," the earlier report said. "In other words, how does one reduce the debt burden while preventing a collapse in investment, maintaining relatively high nominal growth and minimizing job losses?"

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase and Co, said at a media briefing on Monday: "It's not the right time for China to deleverage because profit growth expectations have fallen in recent years and actual lending rates are climbing.

"Under current conditions, forced deleveraging will have a huge negative impact on the economy. It is in conflict with Chinese leaders' pledge to stabilize economic growth."

China's debt stands at over 250% of GDP, says report

China's debt stands at over 250% of GDP, says report

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