UK MPs expected to reject new election call

Parliament passes law seeking Brexit delay as Johnson tries to nullify the bill

The British government was on Monday set to ask members of Parliament for a second time to agree to a snap general election next month, and was expected to face yet another defeat. It would be one of this Parliament's last acts before being suspended on Monday evening for five weeks, per the order of Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Legislation designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit was passed by MPs and was expected to gain royal assent and become law before the shutdown. It compels Johnson to seek a delay to Brexit, though he is thought to be exploring ways to nullify it.

Downing Street said Monday's vote would be Labour Party's last chance to win MPs' approval for an early election and win its own mandate to delay Brexit. The government is not expected to reach the two-thirds majority of MP votes required to secure an election, because opposition parties want to ensure there is an extension of the current European Union exit date of Oct 31.

With the government seemingly intent on finding a way around the law, there has been considerable speculation on how Johnson could be forced to request a Brexit delay from the EU.

The BBC reported that one plan under discussion among Johnson allies is to request an extension from the EU while at the same time making it clear that the United Kingdom does not in fact want one. A letter requesting a delay could be sent along with another document setting out the government's political position, with the aim being to prompt the EU to refuse the extension. Asking one sympathetic EU member state to veto the request is another potential option.

Johnson met the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Monday morning in Dublin to discuss the contentious issue of the Irish "backstop" measure in Britain's proposed withdrawal agreement from the EU.

This meeting came as the French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, highlighted the lack of realistic proposals being put forward by Downing Street as an alternative to the Irish backstop.

The French government has threatened to veto a further Brexit extension due to the "worrying" lack of progress in the recent talks.

When asked if an extension beyond Oct 31 was possible, Le Drian said the EU's patience was waning. "We are not going to do this (extend the deadline) every three months," the French minister added.

The comments appear to confirm the fears of the former work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd, who resigned on Saturday, citing the lack of effort being put into negotiating a deal.

Meanwhile, the accountancy giant KPMG forecasts UK GDP to shrink by 1.5 percent with business confidence badly dented in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

A report from the company claims no-deal would have a significant short-term economic impact on the UK, plunging the country into recession, causing a rise in unemployment and prompting an estimated 6 percent slide in house prices.

Yael Selfin, KPMG UK's chief economist, said she expected that in every quarter of next year the economy would contract, leading to the first recession since 2009 and the aftermath of the financial crisis.

"With the Brexit debate poised on a knife-edge, the UK economy is now at a crossroads. It is difficult to think of another time when the UK has been on the verge of two economic out-turns that are so different, but the impact of a no-deal Brexit should not be underestimated," she said.

jonathan@mail.chinadailyuk.com

(China Daily 09/10/2019 page12)