Brexit impasse raises prospect of election gamble

The United Kingdom looks increasingly likely to be heading for a general election soon, less than two months after Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office, even as he tries to take the country out of the European Union on Oct 31. Johnson has said the UK will sever ties on that date, "do or die, come what may".

A vote on delaying the possibility of a no-deal Brexit was due to take place in Parliament late on Tuesday, with Johnson's stance widely expected to suffer a defeat. A defeat seemed likely because several Conservative MPs were refusing to vote along party lines, despite the threat of being barred from standing as party candidates at any subsequent election.

Johnson replaced Theresa May as British prime minister at the end of July, after three years of her failing to make any progress on the details of the EU divorce.

The Brexit deadline was postponed three times, prompting Johnson's "do or die" statement. But a no-deal Brexit is being widely predicted to bring chaos, ranging from transport gridlock to food and medicine shortages, and even potential civil unrest, so opposition MPs have aligned with dissenters within Johnson's own Conservative Party and looked set to block Johnson's legislative plan.

In an address on Monday, Johnson said that he did not want an election, and that if MPs did vote to block a no-deal Brexit, they would "plainly chop the legs out from under the UK position".

However, he was almost drowned out by loud shouts of "stop the coup" from protesters who had gathered outside Downing Street, clearly picked up by broadcast microphones.

His comments also failed to impress his internal opponents. That evening, defying the deselection threat, the local constituency party of Philip Hammond, one of Johnson's most prominent opponents, selected him again as their candidate for the next election.

"I am going to defend my party against incomers, entryists... people who are at the heart of this government who care nothing about the future of the Conservative Party," Hammond told the BBC.

On Tuesday, former British education secretary Justine Greening said she would not stand at the next election, a clear message she would vote against the government, with several other colleagues also announcing they would defy party instructions.

Johnson could well call the bluff of his opponents with a short-notice election next month. Yet he could repeat May's blunder of 2017, when she gambled on an election to strengthen her negotiating position, only for it to backfire disastrously and lose party seats.

In another twist, even if Johnson wants an election, one is not necessarily guaranteed, as under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, two-thirds of MPs must approve such a move.

Despite Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn saying he would be "delighted" at the prospect of an election, many senior party figures are warning against walking into a Johnson trap.

julian@mail.chinadailyuk.com

(China Daily 09/04/2019 page12)