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How significant is the 'Truce of Osaka'?

By Stephen Roach | China Daily | Updated: 2019-07-02 07:29

Call it the "Truce of Osaka". Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed, as expected, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka on Saturday to stand down from the escalation of economic conflict between the United States and China. That is certainly good news. While it beats the alternative of expanded tariffs and company-specific sanctions, it leaves one obvious unanswered question: what comes next?

Reading between the lines, three tentative answers emerge.

First, there appears to be a return to the negotiations framework that fell apart in early May. According to the Trump administration, this "bilateral plus structural" framework was fairly advanced - 90 percent complete as per US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin - and provides a reasonable template of what to expect once negotiations resume.

How significant is the 'Truce of Osaka'?

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