US overconfidence led to the trade war

By increasing the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent, the United States has launched a trade war against China. Worse, the US claims China provoked the trade war by insisting on a substantially rewritten draft agreement, which according to the US reneged on previously agreed terms, which is not true. Instead, no agreement could be reached between the two sides despite the many rounds of negotiations because of the hard stance the US had adopted.

In my view, the US failed to anticipate three outcomes of the trade frictions and the unsuccessful trade talks.

First, China's determination to defend its core interests has exceeded US expectations. While serving as a senior government official, I have participated in many bilateral and multilateral negotiations. And experience tells me that a good agreement is that which respects both sides' core interests and major concerns, and satisfies them to the greatest extent. It is difficult to implement an agreement that satisfies one party and disappoints the other.