The finesse odds are theoretical

Samuel Goldwyn said, "I'll take 50 percent efficiency to get 100 percent loyalty." A finesse supposedly has a 50 percent chance of success. As you know, though, in these columns, finesses win much less often than that; one succeeds only when declarer needs it.

In this deal, how should South play in four spades after West leads the club two, and East puts up his king?

Over North's game-invitational limit raise, South wondered about making a slam-try, but remembered that balanced hands need more high-card power than usual to bid that high. When the dummy appeared, South noted the mirror distribution, which was bad news because he couldn't get any discards or ruffs. Declarer had four potential losers: two hearts, one diamond and one club. So, did he need the heart finesse to work? South won the first trick with his club ace, drew trumps and played three rounds of diamonds.