Keep an eye on US-Chinese body language in Pittsburgh

Like the other two Group of 20 (G20) summits held since the global banking meltdown a year ago, the very picture of cooperation among heads of government will be the main message at the G20 gathering in Pittsburgh on Sept 24-25 - a message these leaders hope will further calm fears enough to bring the international economic crisis to a soft landing, sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately, we might hear a strikingly dissonant note in the otherwise harmonious chorus of cooperation in Pittsburgh. When the G20 meets, Washington and Beijing may be on the brink of a trade war over Chinese tire exports to the United States and the subsequent complaints from China about protectionist practices. That's obviously of great concern, not only for the US-China trade itself. Because of its size and reach, that bilateral relationship also has disproportionate implications for the overall well-being of the global economy, which is now showing flickers of recovery.

While not entirely unexpected, the decision to impose the tire tariffs is a departure for the Obama Administration, which has thus far mostly restrained itself from protectionist measures. Likewise, the Chinese government had been, until now, careful not to upset the trade relationship with similar actions of its own against US products. "Both countries have been generally cooperative up to this point," says Mickey Kantor, former US Secretary of Commerce and US Trade Representative and a member of my firm's International Advisory Board. "They have followed through on past commitments not to let the current economic recession force them to do things that are protectionist."