A majority of Americans support efforts to repeal tariffs of the US administration, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, as experts debate how far the incoming Democratic-controlled Congress can reshape trade policy and the US approach to China.
The poll, released on Tuesday, found that 62 percent of American adults supported efforts to repeal tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump. Nine in 10 respondents said cost-of-living issues should be a focus for the new Congress during its first 100 days. The survey of 1,705 adults was conducted from Nov 6 to 9.
At a Chicago Council on Global Affairs discussion on Nov 5, Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was optimistic that midterm results could change trade policy.
Other panelists were Princeton University professor G. John Ikenberry, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Charles Kupchan, and CFR Senior Vice-President Shannon K. O'Neil, with CCGA President Leslie Vinjamuri as moderator.
"I do expect some changes on the trade front," Posen said.
O'Neil said other countries might hesitate to sign trade agreements, requiring lasting domestic policy changes if the tariff measures appeared unlikely to outlast Trump's presidency.
Greater congressional scrutiny also could make companies less willing to join overseas commercial deals associated with the administration, she said.
Anthony Moretti, head of the Communications and Organizational Leadership Department and an associate professor of communication at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania, told China Daily that the election reflected public demand for economic change, but bipartisan cooperation would be essential to achieving it.
"As a result, the Democrats can propose a host of programs in this area, including tariff relief, and dare the president to veto any one of them. And he likely will," Moretti said.
While he expected major policy changes to be difficult to implement over the next two years, Moretti suggested that more narrowly targeted tariff exemptions might have a better chance. "As for Congress, a bold plan is likely to be rejected by the president, but specific carve-out options might gain some traction," he said.
CFR senior fellow Kupchan, who is also a Georgetown University professor and former National Security Council official under the Obama administration, was similarly cautious. He cited Senate rules, the lack of veto-proof majorities and Trump's willingness to seek alternative legal authority.
"This is going to be confrontational, and that the checking capabilities of a Democratic Congress are quite limited," he said.
China ties
The CCGA event also discussed whether the incoming Congress might pursue a more pragmatic approach to China.
Responding to an audience question about expanding cooperation in areas such as AI while managing competition, Posen said he supported the idea of a more constructive relationship.
Kupchan emphasized the importance of China-US relations. "I would love to see the United States have a great relationship with Germany and a great relationship with Canada, but the most important relationship in the 21st century is US-China," he said.
A serious rupture in bilateral relations would make it harder to address challenges ranging from AI and climate change to global health and nuclear proliferation, he added.
Moretti said he saw room for progress in China-US ties outside congressional negotiations. He pointed to ongoing ministerial-level discussions between the two countries under the "constructive relationship of strategic stability" framework first agreed upon by the two presidents in May and reaffirmed in September.
Moretti expressed optimism about the prospects for continued bilateral engagement. "The momentum is certainly there for continued progress," he said.
He suggested that advances might come through people-to-people exchanges, closer coordination on AI governance and sustained discussions on cyberterrorism, rather than necessarily through high-profile summits.
The panelists differed over whether the election could restore confidence in the US' broader international role. Kupchan cautioned against overinterpreting the Democratic victory, saying political fragmentation and economic insecurity across Western economies reflected problems well beyond the Trump administration.
Kupchan remained skeptical that the US' traditional foreign policy consensus could be quickly restored.
"That bipartisan centrist consensus in favor of a robust American role in the world has evaporated," he said. Rebuilding that consensus, he added, could take a generation or longer, leaving US allies facing prolonged uncertainty about Washington's future commitments.
