Democrats' sweeping victories in Tuesday's midterm elections have shifted the balance of power in Washington, setting up two years of divided government. Analysts say the new congressional majorities will bring stronger scrutiny of President Donald Trump's administration, although their ability to change his domestic and foreign policies remains uncertain.
Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, ending unified Republican control of Washington. As of Wednesday, Democrats and independents who caucus with them had secured at least 54 Senate seats, including traditionally Republican states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, while counting continued in some races. The new Congress takes office on Jan 3.
Asked about the election's implications for China-US ties, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday, "The US midterm elections are a domestic affair".
Mao said China stood ready to work with the United States to uphold and deliver on the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, enhance communication, properly manage differences and expand cooperation, and build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of respect, fairness and reciprocity.
"The US-China relationship is unlikely to change because of the election," said Jack Midgley, principal at Midgley & Company and adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.
Kenton Thibaut of the Atlantic Council, meanwhile, saw potential for congressional support for China-US coordination on artificial intelligence safety, subject to negotiations between the two governments.
In a Wednesday post-election discussion hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Daniel Drezner, a Tufts University professor, linked voters' economic concerns to foreign policy.
"Americans fundamentally do not care about foreign policy unless it affects their bottom line," he said. The discussion repeatedly returned to the impact of the Iran war and tariffs on household costs.
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, wrote on Wednesday that the Iran war had played an unusually important electoral role because higher energy costs made its consequences visible to voters. Rebecca Patterson of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) expected the incoming Congress to prioritize affordability and corruption, including efforts to lower housing, food, energy and healthcare costs.
Midgley of Georgetown University offered a more skeptical view on Wednesday. He told China Daily that Trump's veto power and broad executive authority would limit the Democrats' ability to enact major legislation and predicted that congressional investigations could take precedence over lawmaking.
CFR experts, however, stressed that the new majorities would chair committees, exercise leverage over federal spending and, through the Senate, decide whether to confirm senior administration nominees. Drezner drew a distinction between the Democratic Congress elected in 2006, which failed to prevent George W. Bush's troop surge in Iraq, and the Congress elected in 1974, which imposed stronger limits on executive power. He suggested the coming Congress might fall between those precedents.
Trade may test how far the new Congress can go. Pierre Yared of CFR wrote that changes in congressional control were unlikely on their own to alter Trump's tariff policy, as the president was exercising powers previously delegated by Congress. Drezner, by contrast, saw a possibility of bipartisan action because some Republicans also oppose the tariffs, although he did not assume enough votes could be found to override a veto.
Fiscal disputes could prove consequential beyond Washington. Josh Lipsky and Bart Piasecki of the Atlantic Council warned in an article on Wednesday that negotiations over federal spending and the debt ceiling in 2027 could create uncertainty for US financial markets and the global economy.
On other areas of foreign policy, Christopher Preble of the Stimson Center called on lawmakers to use oversight and funding powers to press for an end to the Iran war.
Leslie Vinjamuri, president and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, suggested another possible response from Trump: rather than necessarily becoming more confrontational abroad, he might pursue diplomatic agreements, including on Ukraine, to build a presidential legacy.
CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick wrote that Asian partners might welcome stronger congressional oversight, but should not expect immediate tariff relief given Trump's veto power.
Andrew Hyde of the Stimson Center similarly cautioned that European governments should not assume Democratic control of Congress would restore past patterns of transatlantic relations.
The election could also shape the Republican Party's course toward 2028. Midgley said that Republicans would increasingly look beyond Trump toward potential successors.
"Trump's loss of influence will be real but may be difficult to see outside the Republican party," he said. Drezner likewise suggested that the Republican presidential primary could become more open following the party's losses.
For Democrats, gaining congressional power is only the beginning of the test. Vinjamuri warned in the Chicago Council discussion that successful investigations would mean little to voters unless the party could help deliver lower food, housing and gasoline costs — an assessment that brings the political consequences of the election back to the economic concerns that shaped it.
yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com
