Early action can help better tackle climate challenges

In July 2026, forecasts warned of severe flooding in Bangladesh's Bandarban district. Rather than waiting for conditions to worsen, the United Nations World Food Programme activated anticipatory action and shock-responsive social protection, reaching 75,000 people with cash assistance before flood risks intensified.

The support reached families while they still had time to prepare — helping them meet immediate needs, protect livelihoods and avoid falling deeper into crisis. This is the promise of anticipatory action: turning early warning into early response. The forecast could not stop the flooding, but it gave people power over their fear. It gave them time to act instead of just waiting.

The need to act early has never been more urgent. An estimated 645 million people faced hunger worldwide in 2025. Conflict, economic shocks and displacement continue to drive food insecurity in many of the world's most vulnerable countries, while the escalating crisis in the Middle East is adding further pressure through disruptions to trade, energy and food markets.

Against this already fragile backdrop, extreme weather is accelerating food insecurity. In 2025 alone, weather extremes were the primary driver of acute food insecurity in 16 countries and territories, affecting 87.5 million people.

The risks keep rising. A strong El Nino is developing, bringing the prospect of above-normal temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, with greater drought risks in some regions and heavier flooding in others. For millions of smallholder farmers, these are not distant threats. They show up in stressed water supplies, uncertain planting seasons and growing concern over future harvests, which translate into heightened hunger risk. WFP's early analysis projects that this El Nino could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.

But climate hazards differ from many other crises in one important respect: Increasingly, we can see them coming.

Advances in forecasting and early-warning systems give us days, weeks or sometimes months to prepare.

The real test is whether that information reaches people who need it and is translated into action before it is too late.

Early warning is most valuable when it leads to action.

Anticipatory action takes the next step by linking forecasts to pre-agreed triggers, financing and practical solutions before disaster strikes. That could mean providing cash assistance before markets become inaccessible, protecting livestock and crops before droughts or floods hit, and strengthening social protection systems so assistance can be scaled up quickly.

For vulnerable families, acting before there is a crisis can mean the difference between protecting their livelihoods and losing assets that may take years to rebuild. Evidence shows that every $1 invested in anticipatory action returns up to $7 in avoided losses and additional benefits.

WFP is increasingly putting this approach into practice at scale. In 2025, more than $35 million was released ahead of disasters, supporting over 1.2 million people with anticipatory assistance, while more than 15 million people received early-warning information.

This is what anticipatory action makes possible: a forecast becomes a decision, a decision unlocks resources, and assistance reaches people before a hazard becomes a disaster.

As countries seek to strengthen these systems, international cooperation and the sharing of practical experience are becoming increasingly important.

China's experience offers a powerful example of what sustained investment in agriculture, technology and disaster readiness can achieve. Its growing strengths in meteorology, satellites and artificial intelligence are creating opportunities to strengthen early warning and preparedness beyond its borders.

One promising example is MAZU, an AI-powered meteorological warning system that combines advanced forecasting technologies with international cooperation to make climate information more accessible and actionable for all. Through South-South and Triangular Cooperation, solutions such as MAZU can help countries across the Global South strengthen their preparedness and build resilience in ways that reflect their own risks, institutions and priorities.

The WFP Centre of Excellence for Rural Transformation in China provides an established platform for this exchange. Since 2016, it has connected China's experience with developing countries through policy dialogue, technical cooperation and practical knowledge sharing on food security, agricultural transformation and climate resilience.

China's domestic experience also offers relevant lessons. In Jilin province, for example, WFP worked with local authorities on an integrated risk-management project for maize farmers. By combining precision agriculture, digital tools and an innovative "Insurance + Futures" solution, the initiative helped farmers better manage both production and market risks while using natural resources more efficiently.

By connecting innovations such as MAZU with practical field experience such as that in Jilin, the WFP center can continue to bridge China's expertise with global demand — adapting solutions to local contexts and turning preparedness into lasting resilience.

Preparedness cannot eliminate climate shocks, but it can change what happens when they arrive. Making it work, however, is a shared responsibility. Governments, international organizations, research institutions, development banks, technology companies and local communities all have a role to play.

It means investing in better forecasting and early-warning systems, but also in the mechanisms that turn warnings into action: pre-arranged financing, responsive social protection, local readiness and the capacity of communities and institutions to act quickly.

Over time, these sustained investments do more than reduce the impact of a single drought or flood. They protect livelihoods, safeguard development gains, reduce repeated losses and setbacks, and build long-term resilience so that communities are able to withstand tomorrow's shocks without losing ground today.

The future of food security will not be determined by climate hazards alone. It will also depend on our collective ability to anticipate risks, act before losses mount and invest in the resilience communities need to thrive, no matter what the weather brings.

The author is representative and director of the United Nations World Food Programme China Office.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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