Record El Nino predicted to intensify

An El Nino weather pattern is gaining in strength over the Pacific Ocean and is likely to intensify further to become the strongest in 150 years, climate experts said, warning that this could lead to amplified risks of prolonged heat waves, heavier rainfall and stronger typhoons across Asia while raising the likelihood of 2027 becoming the hottest year ever.

The National Climate Center said that El Nino, a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures, began developing over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in May. The warming trend continued in June, and the weather pattern entered a strong phase in July.

The probability of it developing into a super El Nino has now increased, and the event is expected to persist at least through next spring, roughly matching the historical average duration of 10 to 11 months, according to forecasters.

The developing climate pattern comes as China experiences a combination of extreme heat, widespread flooding and an active typhoon season, reflecting how El Nino acts as a global climate multiplier that increases the probability of weather extremes rather than directly causing individual events, experts said.

"Strong El Nino events alter atmospheric circulation through large-scale interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, changing the nature of seasonal climate anomalies," said Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center.

El Nino affects China differently at each stage of its life cycle, Chen said. During the development phase in summer, the western North Pacific typically generates more tropical cyclones. This is when strong typhoons are more likely to make landfall along the southeastern and southern coasts of China. "Some storms also have a greater chance of tracking farther north," she said.

Currently, parts of eastern and northeastern China are grappling with oppressive heat. This week, temperatures above 37 C are forecast across parts of Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, with isolated areas expected to record temperatures exceeding 40 C.

Even regions that usually do not witness heat waves are expected to experience dangerous conditions because of high humidity.

Meanwhile, heavy rainfall continues across broad areas of the country. Since late July, an unusually strong western Pacific subtropical high circulation has fueled persistent downpours over Heilongjiang province, where several locations broke daily rainfall records.

Flooding along the Songhua River in northeastern China prompted authorities to issue the river's first numbered flood alert of 2026.

Heavy rain is forecast to continue in the Sichuan Basin, eastern parts of Northwest China, North China, South China, and Yunnan province.

Offshore, forecasters expect Typhoon Dolphin to stay south of the subtropical high and continue moving generally westward, posing no threat to China's coastal waters before Wednesday night.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global average temperatures are likely to stay at or near record highs through 2030.

Chen said that historical evidence shows that the global warming influence of a strong El Nino typically peaks in the year after the pattern reaches maximum intensity, because the ocean's impact on the atmosphere lags by six months to a year.

The delayed response is likely to see 2027 make new global temperature records, she added.

zhaoyimeng@chinadaily.com.cn