Manila's dangerous gamble over Huangyan Island

There is a familiar rhythm to the Ferdinand Marcos Jr government's diplomacy: extend an "olive branch" with one hand while striking a match over explosives with the other.

Manila earlier this week deposited its so-called official nautical chart of China's Huangyan Island with the United Nations, a move it said reinforces the "legal certainty of its maritime entitlements under international law".

But its delimitation of the so-called "baselines of the territorial sea" is, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated categorically in a statement on Friday, "illegal, null and void".

The Philippines has been hyping the maritime issues and making such provocative moves that trample on China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests for some time now, unnecessarily creating friction with its neighbor and undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea. 

The timing was revealing. Less than two weeks ago, Marcos told China's ambassador to the Philippines, Jing Quan, that he wanted to "reset" bilateral ties, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Philippine counterpart in Manila, during which the latter claimed the Philippine side hopes to work out proper solutions to maritime issues via dialogue and achieve progress in the improvement of bilateral ties.

This is not a coherent strategy. It is a risky gamble.

By escalating tensions in the South China Sea, Manila hopes to reinforce its value to Washington and Tokyo. Marcos Jr has fallen into the trap of overestimating the leverage the Philippines can gain from rivalry among major countries, only to discover that being a frontline partner is not the same as being an indispensable ally.

Nor has Manila received the unequivocal backing it may have expected. Washington has stopped short of publicly endorsing the baseline declaration. Japan, despite strengthening security ties with the Philippines, is pursuing its own strategic objectives rather than acting as an unconditional patron. The Philippines risks becoming less a valued partner than a disposable asset in a contest shaped by others.

The latest provocation also reflects mounting domestic pressures. Marcos Jr faces slowing political momentum amid stubborn inflation, rising living costs and persistent employment challenges. In such circumstances, external confrontation offers a familiar political temptation: redirect public attention from domestic frustrations toward nationalist sentiment. History suggests such tactics may yield short-term political dividends, but rarely produce lasting strategic gains.

The timing is equally awkward for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. As this year's rotating chair, the Philippines is expected to promote regional stability and advance negotiations on the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Instead, its unilateral so-called "baseline" declaration risks injecting fresh tensions into an already delicate diplomatic process.

Many Southeast Asian governments remain wary of turning maritime disputes into another arena for major-country rivalry. At the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Manila found little regional enthusiasm for its position. Malaysia's foreign minister publicly cautioned against external powers projecting strategic competition into Southeast Asia, underscoring ASEAN's longstanding preference for strategic autonomy over bloc politics.

Beijing's response has combined diplomatic restraint with firm opposition. China's Foreign Ministry reiterated that the Philippine "baselines" do not affect China's sovereignty over Huangyan Island and the Nansha Islands. The Ministry of National Defense of China likewise warned that no amount of external support would "legitimize" Manila's unlawful claims.

China's broader approach remains consistent: dialogue where dialogue is possible, firmness where its core interests are challenged. Should Manila pursue negotiations, Beijing has repeatedly signaled its willingness to engage. If provocations continue, however, China is prepared to strengthen its law enforcement operations and adopt further targeted countermeasures. The message is straightforward: confrontation will meet resistance, while dialogue is still on the table.

Marcos Jr may believe he is enhancing the Philippines' strategic relevance. Instead, each new escalation narrows Manila's diplomatic room for manoeuvre while increasing its dependence on external powers whose priorities may ultimately diverge from its own. China has made clear that the Philippines' "baseline" declaration is a grave infringement upon China's territorial sovereignty and a serious violation of international law and it will continue defending its sovereign rights resolutely.