Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in China are projected to fall 0.9 percent in 2026 after two years of slow growth, as the country continues to expand the use of renewable energy and electric vehicles, said the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, which was unveiled on Tuesday.
The projection comes as climate experts and officials at the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP31, highlight China's central role in accelerating the global clean energy transition.
The annual UN climate summit, which opened on Monday in Antalya, Turkiye, will run through Nov 20.
According to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, China produces 32 percent of the world's fossil emissions, but it is also the country most active in deploying clean technologies and increasing carbon sinks through reforestation. The country has achieved the largest carbon uptake through its reforestation and afforestation initiatives.
In addition, China accounts for half of the emissions avoided worldwide through the use of renewable energy and EVs.
Along with a sharp decrease in oil emissions, China's coal emissions are projected to rise by just 0.3 percent, while electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly.
Globally, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4 percent to 38.2 billion metric tons this year. While energy demand continues to rise, two-thirds of the increase is being met by greater use of solar and wind power and EVs.
However, clean energy growth is still not fast enough to bring about a sustained decline in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
An analysis published in the academic journal Nature Climate Change, alongside the report, found that emissions avoided through solar and wind power rose from 0.28 billion tons in 2010 to 4.1 billion tons in 2025, and are projected to reach 4.6 billion tons in 2026.
Corinne Le Quere, a Royal Society research professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, said that clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions.
"Solar and wind power and EVs are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years," she said.
Global emissions from oil are projected to decrease 1.9 percent, likely as a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict in Iran, according to the report.
"A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter in the UK, who led the study.
"The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and EVs are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline," he said.
Chris Bowen, COP31 president of negotiations, also highlighted China's contribution to the global energy transition at a side event at the China Pavilion on "Ecological Civilization and Beautiful China Practices" on Tuesday.
Bowen, who is also Australia's minister for climate change and energy, said that global renewable energy capacity was expected to grow by 4,800 gigawatts between 2025 and 2030, exceeding the combined power-generation capacity of China, Japan and the European Union.
"This is a remarkable achievement, and China is playing a key role in making it possible," he said.
"What every country does matters," Bowen said. "Every country matters. But no country matters more than China, not only because of its size and influence, but also because of the impact its investments are having around the world.
"China's investments are bringing down the cost of renewable energy for everyone. They are driving down the costs of batteries and solar power. That benefits China's own economic development, but it benefits the rest of the world as well."
houliqiang@chinadaily.com.cn
