China's carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease by 0.9 percent in 2026, following two years of low emissions growth, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget. In addition to a strong decrease in oil emissions, coal emissions are projected to rise slightly by 0.3 percent, while electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly.
China produces 32 percent of global fossil emissions, but it is also the country most active in deploying clean technologies and increasing carbon sinks through reforestation. Half of the global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles are in China. The country also has the largest carbon uptake through reforestation and afforestation.
Globally, fossil CO2 emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion metric tons and total emissions to rise to 43.3 billion tons this year. While energy demand continues to rise, two-thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles. However, clean energy growth is yet to account for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.
The analysis published alongside the report in Nature Climate Change found that emissions avoided by solar and wind power rose from 0.28 billion tons in 2010 to 4.1 billion tons in 2025, and are projected to reach 4.6 billion tons in 2026.
Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions, said Professor Corinne Le Quere, Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia.
"Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies. A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years," she said.
