Technology will be decisive in enabling China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals, but the country faces a major challenge in developing and deploying low-carbon solutions quickly enough, according to a report released Monday by Tsinghua University's Institute for Carbon Neutrality.
Titled Technology Perspective on China's Carbon Neutrality Pathway, the report examines more than 300 key technologies across six major categories: zero-carbon electricity supply; zero-carbon heat and sustainable fuel supply; end-use electrification; low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution; energy efficiency improvement; and carbon capture, storage and negative emissions.
The report estimates that China's carbon neutrality technology system could contribute about 12.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions reductions by 2060, providing the technological foundation for meeting the country's carbon neutrality target.
Zero-carbon electricity production and consumption will be central to the transition. Zero-carbon power supply and end-use electrification together are expected to account for 71 percent of total emissions reductions. In hard-to-abate sectors, including complex industrial processes and long-distance transportation, zero-carbon heat and sustainable fuels, low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution, and carbon capture, storage and negative emissions will jointly contribute about 23 percent of reductions.
However, the technology system remains far from mature. Of 134 technology subcategories assessed by the report, about 25 percent have reached the mature application stage, 28 percent are in early application, and nearly half remain at the experimental or demonstration stage.
Development is also uneven across sectors. More than 93 percent of energy-efficiency technologies have reached mature or early application, while less than 20 percent of low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution technologies have reached these stages.
The report projects that the average marginal abatement cost per metric ton of carbon dioxide will rise to about 327 yuan ($49) by 2060, compared to 287 yuan in 2035.
The research, development, and deployment of carbon-neutral technologies will bring about major industrial transformation and investment opportunities, according to the report. As of 2060, cumulative investment demand for carbon-neutral technologies is expected to reach 180 trillion yuan.
Because the country's time window from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality is only 30 years, if the relevant technologies cannot achieve breakthroughs as soon as possible, achieving large-scale, rapid emissions reduction after carbon peaking will face the challenge of insufficient technology supply, it stressed.
"In the early commercialization stage, the application cost of technologies is relatively high, and market investment offers low returns, long cycles, and great uncertainty," it said. "This has resulted in insufficient willingness among market players, creating a huge investment gap."
