China's traditionally robust auto sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" lost much of its shine this year. However, surging overseas shipments are acting as a buffer against the shrinking domestic market.
The China Passenger Car Association estimates retail sales of passenger vehicles in China dropped to 1.6 million units in October, down 28.9 percent year-on-year. Full-year domestic passenger vehicle retail sales are estimated at 18.5 million units, down 22.1 percent from 23.74 million in 2025.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the CPCA, attributed the worse-than-expected slump to the expiry of purchase-tax incentives for new energy vehicles and geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices.
He added that conditions may improve in 2027 as inventory pressures ease and new vehicle supply cycles recover, setting the car market on course for a recovery.
The China Automobile Dealers Association noted that national holiday promotions and autumn auto shows lifted showroom traffic and orders in early October, but momentum faded in the second half of the month. A wait-and-see sentiment persisted, with consumers holding out for year-end discounts, stretching decision-making cycles and intensifying price competition.
"The 'Golden September, Silver October' phenomenon has basically vanished for the first time and may become a thing of the past," said Gui Shengyue, vice-chairman of the board of Geely Auto.
The weak season indicates a market shift in which cars are no longer basic transportation tools and consumers no longer buy cars purely as durable necessities, placing more value on technology and other attributes. Most orders are from trade-ins and second purchases, with increased consumer hesitation.
Overseas markets, once merely a growth supplement, have now become a pillar for stabilizing overall sales and offsetting weakening domestic demand.
In terms of different brands, BYD remained the top seller in October with 490,200 units delivered, up 10.97 percent year-on-year and 5.74 percent month-on-month. But the headline growth masks weakness at home: BYD's domestic retail volumes have fallen every month so far in 2026.
From July to October, its domestic sales dropped 9.18 percent, 14.34 percent, 12.97 percent and 10.57 percent year-on-year, respectively. The automaker's overall positive growth was largely propped up by overseas deliveries.
SAIC Motor ranked second with around 430,000 units, down 5.28 percent year-on-year. Geely's October sales stood at 310,000 units, eking out 1 percent annual growth. Chery followed with 295,900 units, up 5.3 percent year-on-year.
Great Wall Motor, by contrast, delivered 120,300 units, a 15.87 percent drop. Changan Auto reported October sales of 233,200 units, down 16.23 percent year-on-year even as its overseas deliveries jumped 77.3 percent year-on-year to 102,500 units.
New energy brands showed mixed results, with overseas expansion delivering outsized gains for some.
Leapmotor extended its run of monthly deliveries above 100,000 units for a fourth straight month, delivering 106,100 vehicles in October, a 50.99 percent year-on-year rise.
XPeng's deliveries hit 50,200 units, up 20 percent year-on-year and 22 percent month-on-month, crossing the 50,000 mark thanks to overseas shipments. Its overseas deliveries hit a record 13,300 units in October, jumping 166 percent year-on-year.
Its new Mona L05 went on sale in October, with 5,000 ready-to-deliver units sold out within three minutes. Formal large-scale handovers start in November.
Xiaomi Auto passed the 50,000 delivery threshold for the first time in October thanks to its first full month of deliveries for Skynomad extended-range electric models.
Geely's NEV arm Zeekr delivered 32,483 vehicles in October, up 51.6 percent year-on-year. It handed over 320,887 units in the first 10 months, a 94.4 percent jump. With an average transaction price of nearly 370,000 yuan ($55,450), Zeekr has hit its annual sales target of 300,000 units, making it one of the few mainstream brands to lift both volume and pricing and beat its goal early.
Changan's Deepal brand reported October sales of 32,602 units, up 8.01 percent month-on-month but down 11.39 percent year-on-year.
Nio followed with deliveries of 34,246 units, down 15.23 percent year-on-year, and Li Auto shipped 29,025 units, declining 8.63 percent.
Huawei's Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance logged 33,537 deliveries, tumbling 50.84 percent, including 22,105 units from Aito, a brand by Huawei and Seres.
Some are facing more severe challenges, with sales below the 10,000-unit mark. SAIC's IM Motors sold 7,837 units, a decrease of 40.3 percent year-on-year and 2 percent month-on-month.
Changan's Avatr brand delivered 7,056 units in October, down 47.8 percent year-on-year and 13.8 percent month-on-month, failing to surpass the 10,000-unit mark for 10 consecutive months.
caoyingying@chinadaily.com.cn
