China will need 9,240 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years as airlines expand their networks and replace older planes, Boeing said in Beijing on Tuesday, forecasting that the country's fleet will grow from nearly 4,500 aircraft today to more than 9,800 by 2045.
According to the US aircraft manufacturer's 2026 China Commercial Market Outlook, China's passenger air traffic is expected to increase by 5 percent annually, supported by a growing middle class, more visa-free travel destinations, and continued investment in aviation infrastructure.
The latest delivery forecast is higher than the 9,000 aircraft Boeing projected for China in its previous outlook covering 2025 to 2044.
Single-aisle jets will account for the bulk of demand, with Chinese airlines expected to take delivery of 7,215 such aircraft through 2045 to serve domestic and regional routes. They represent 78 percent of the total projected deliveries.
Boeing expects China's domestic air travel market to become the world's largest by 2045, as more people fly for business and leisure. Newer single-aisle aircraft will also help airlines expand connections across the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia, the company said.
"Our long-term forecast continues to show strong demand for new airplanes as China's passenger air traffic outpaces growth globally," Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice-president of commercial marketing, said.
Growth in long-haul travel between China and Europe, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East will drive demand for 1,460 widebody aircraft, according to the forecast. The remaining deliveries comprise 405 regional aircraft and 160 newly built freighters.
Boeing also expects demand for a total of 560 newly built and converted freighters by 2045, as manufacturing, high-tech industries, and e-commerce support air cargo traffic. The figure includes aircraft converted from passenger use, which are not counted as new deliveries.
As China's fleet matures, airlines will devote a larger share of deliveries to replacing older aircraft. Boeing said 42 percent of the projected 9,240 deliveries would be used for fleet renewal.
European aircraft manufacturer Airbus also sees substantial demand in China. In its 2026 to 2045 outlook, released in September, Airbus projected that the country would need 8,830 new passenger aircraft over the period. The figure is not directly comparable with Boeing's total, which also includes newly built freighters.
Beyond aircraft purchases, Boeing projected that Chinese airlines would invest $875 billion over the next two decades in areas including digital services, aircraft maintenance, and personnel training. The country's aviation sector will also need 425,000 new pilots, technicians, and cabin crew, it said.
