El Nino raises risk of food insecurity in arid and semiarid regions of Kenya

Millions of people in Kenya are at risk of severe food insecurity due to ongoing drought, which is feared to worsen due to the anticipated El Nino effect later this year.

Around 2.7 million people across Kenya's 23 arid and semiarid counties are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, including 348,000 facing emergency levels, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a multi-stakeholder global partnership governed collectively by 21 international organizations, including United Nations agencies.

The figure is 55 percent higher than the estimated 1.8 million people who experienced acute food insecurity in July 2025 and exceeds the previous projection of 2.1 million for October 2025-January 2026.

The deterioration has been attributed to poor rainfall distribution, below-average livelihood recovery, persistent household vulnerabilities and insufficient humanitarian food-security assistance.

Food insecurity and malnutrition have worsened significantly in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River counties, as well as in the Dadaab, Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee settlements.

Although food security outcomes are projected to improve through January 2027, supported by forecasts of enhanced rainfall during the October-December short-rains season, the anticipated El Nino conditions could turn above-average rainfall into flash floods in some low-lying areas.

Lamu County, for instance, is projected to deteriorate from the stressed phase of food insecurity to the crisis phase, partly because flooding could disrupt its main supply route.

The combined national and refugee caseload indicates nearly 900,000 cases of acute malnutrition among children aged under five years. A further 117,000 cases of malnutrition are projected among girls, pregnant and breastfeeding women.

These groups will require urgent treatment by March. The child malnutrition caseload is 19 percent higher than the April 2025 to March 2026 estimate, representing about 140,000 additional children.

Between August and October 2026, acute malnutrition is projected to worsen because of a high disease burden, declining household food stocks and seasonal increases in food prices associated with the lean season.

Food insecurity is unlikely to improve before November. The expected onset of El Nino in October could trigger flooding, make roads impassable, disrupt access to health services and markets, and worsen water, sanitation and hygiene conditions. Conditions in Dadaab, Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee settlements are expected to remain under significant pressure through January 2027.

To strengthen preparedness ahead of the anticipated El Nino, the government has outlined a seven-point national contingency plan developed in collaboration with national and county governments, security agencies, humanitarian partners and other disaster-management stakeholders.

The plan includes mapping hot spots, unclogging drainage systems, inspecting infrastructure, strengthening early-warning systems, deploying emergency supplies in advance, keeping response teams on standby and issuing health and safety advisories.

On Monday, the Ministry of Health said it had activated preparedness measures at both national and county levels.

"We are acting early and together," Mary Muriuki, principal secretary in the State Department for Public Health and Professional Standards, said. "We have learned from previous El Nino emergencies, and our goal is to prevent avoidable deaths, disease outbreaks and disruption of health services."