Rising global temperatures heighten glacier-related disaster risks in high-altitude regions, experts warn

Shrinking and destabilized mountain glaciers are increasing the risk of disasters in high-altitude regions amid global warming, meteorological experts said.

The Aug 26 disaster at Gyirong Port in Xizang autonomous region was traced to an ice avalanche on the northern slope of Langtang Lirung, at an altitude of about 5,200 meters in Nepal, according to an investigation. The falling ice rapidly moved down a valley, generating a huge debris flow that struck the port.

Scientists say such events are becoming an increasingly important concern as global warming accelerates the melting and retreat of mountain glaciers.

The World Glacier Monitoring Service, which has conducted long-term monitoring of reference glaciers worldwide, has found that glacier mass loss has accelerated since the 1990s. From 2000 to 2023, mountain glaciers worldwide lost an average of about 273 billion metric tons of ice each year. The average annual loss rate from 2012 to 2023 was 36 percent higher than during 2000 to 2011.

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau — one of the world's most sensitive regions to climate change — is warming particularly rapidly.

From 1961 to 2025, the plateau's average annual temperature increased by 0.35 C per decade, faster than the global average over the same period. Comparisons of China's three glacier inventories show that the total area of glaciers on the plateau shrank by about 24 percent over the past six decades.

Wang Pengling, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center, said the changes are altering the stability of the high-mountain environment and increasing the potential for cascading hazards.

"These changes can affect the stability of the cryosphere in various ways, increasing the risk of hazards such as ice avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, and glacier-related debris flows," he said.

Rising temperatures are also degrading permafrost, which can weaken frozen ground and rock, further undermining the stability of mountain slopes.

According to the China Climate Bulletin 2026, from 2004 to 2025, temperatures at the upper boundary of permafrost rose by an average of 0.34 C per decade.

Monitoring at 15 meteorological stations in central and eastern Xizang also showed that the maximum freezing depth of seasonal frozen ground decreased by an average of 6 centimeters per decade from 1961 to 2025.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that glacier melt and permafrost degradation can reduce the stability of high-mountain slopes and alter the frequency, magnitude, and extent of cryosphere-related hazards, increasing the risk of cascading disasters.

Experts say monitoring and early-warning systems therefore need to keep pace with the rapid changes in the mountain cryosphere.

"There is still no comprehensive early-warning system specifically designed for glacier-related hazards in high-mountain areas, leaving gaps across the monitoring and warning chain," Wang said.

A complete natural-disaster early-warning system involves four key elements: understanding and assessing disaster risks, dynamic monitoring, and forecasting, warning dissemination and communication, and emergency response.

He called for a coordinated ground-air-space observation network tailored to the complex terrain of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with stronger dynamic monitoring of high-risk glaciers and glacial lakes.

He also recommended further research into the mechanisms behind cryosphere-related disasters and the development of comprehensive warning indicators to improve real-time alerts, risk assessments, and forecasts of future changes.