Experts urge better monitoring after deadly Jiangxi mudslide

Experts have called for stronger basic geological surveys, dynamic monitoring and deeper research into disaster patterns after a deadly mudslide in a low-risk area of Suichuan county, Jiangxi province, killed 16 people as of early Thursday.

All the missing people have been found deceased, and the search and rescue operation in the core area has ended.

The disaster was triggered by days of torrential rains brought by Typhoon Saudel, which dumped more than 600 millimeters in six days, nearly half the area's annual average of 1,400 mm, China Central Television reported on Wednesday.

"The intense rainfall triggered a hillside collapse that blocked a gully and, combined with mountain floods, eventually formed a chain-reaction gully debris flow — a type of disaster marked by high frequency, strong concealment and unpredictability," said Chu Xiaodong, deputy director of Jiangxi Geological Survey and Exploration Institute.

After the disaster, all-out search and rescue operations were underway, while efforts are also being made to relocate affected residents and prevent secondary disasters. However, rescue operations faced two major challenges.

"The unfavorable weather, including light rain and showers in the coming days, put considerable pressure on rescue operations," said Chu.

He added that another challenge was the highly complex rescue site. It covers more than 8,000 square meters, with mud and sand deposits over 10 meters deep, leaving the ground extremely soft. A deep channel with a large flow caused the collapse of the river's slope, hampering the operation of heavy machinery and deployment of more large equipment.

Geographical surveys show the local granite valley, with steep slopes and thick vegetation, is usually classified as a low-risk area, yet its unique high-altitude terrain hid the disaster, its sudden occurrence catching routine prevention measures off guard and exceeding the scope of previous understanding.

According to Chu, there are 29,000 registered geological disaster sites throughout Jiangxi, but only about 20 medium-sized or larger debris flow hazards, and this site is not included in the current monitoring network.

"Therefore, it is necessary to continuously promote the combination of 'human defense and technological defense' in the future, and constantly enhance the ability to understand and analyze geological disasters under extreme weather conditions," Chu added.

Chen Hongqi, senior engineer at the Ministry of Natural Resources' technical guidance center for geological disasters, said this year's disasters have shown greater uncertainty in timing and location, stronger dynamics and more pronounced chain-reaction effects.

Chen urged strengthening basic geological surveys to improve understanding of disaster-prone geological structures and the carrying capacity of geological environments, and to enhance dynamic inspections of geological hazard risks and hidden dangers to continue monitoring their changing trends.

"To formulate more targeted countermeasures, it is necessary to deepen research on and understanding of the fundamental patterns of disasters, take a systematic approach that balances safety and development, and explore how territorial space governance can be better integrated with source control of geological hazards," Chen added.

He also called for building AI — and big data-driven early warning systems. "They present a valuable opportunity for the iterative development of disaster early warning systems, and there is now a wealth of sensory and observational information available. We need to integrate this diverse information, promptly translate it into risk assessments, and also turn it into actions that guide early warning and risk avoidance."

Xu Zhu contributed to this story.