Sino-US trade rebound lifts global outlook

Renewed momentum in China-United States economic ties has helped boost confidence in the global economy while supporting steadier and more resilient bilateral trade in the months ahead, said market watchers and business leaders.

The upbeat remarks came after official General Administration of Customs figures showed a sharp turnaround in bilateral trade in goods. After slumping 18.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, China-US goods trade rebounded to post a 13.7 percent year-on-year gain in the second quarter.

This trade recovery aligns with fresh bilateral moves to stabilize economic relations. The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that during the latest round of China-US economic and trade consultations held in May, the two sides reached an agreement to negotiate a reciprocal tariff cut framework via a newly established trade council. The deal would cover goods valued at $30 billion or more from each country.

Although neither side has released a final product list, trade analysts expect the tariff cuts to cover textiles, footwear, consumer goods, electronic components, industrial machinery parts, chemicals, plastics and agricultural products, while excluding sectors such as advanced semiconductors and strategic resources.

Diao Daming, a professor of international relations at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, said recent progress in the China-US economic and trade talks has helped bolster business confidence across the world and is creating conditions for more predictable trade and investment.

Yu Xinding, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said that once implemented, the new tariff framework will support further growth in China-US trade while setting a positive example for resolving trade disputes through dialogue.

"Faced with multifaceted costs triggered by tariffs, this move offers a practical solution to help reverse trade distortions created by previous tariffs," said Yu. "The initiative goes far beyond lowering tariffs on selected goods. Equal consultations will improve market access, ease corporate burdens and restore bilateral trade to market-oriented, mutually beneficial dynamics."

Though modest relative to overall China-US trade, the planned tariff relief targets products with clear market demand and practical benefits, delivering early, verifiable results that can strengthen confidence in two-way economic ties, she added.

While the recent rebound in bilateral trade points to improving momentum, analysts cautioned that the relationship remains subject to structural challenges and external uncertainties, despite the progress made through dialogue.

Ma Xue, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that strategic competition between China and the US in high-tech sectors will continue to intensify, while tighter controls on semiconductors, artificial intelligence and critical minerals, alongside geopolitical tensions, could weigh on the bilateral trade climate.

"Overall, institutionalized consultations and differentiated management of disputes could help offset short-term political disruptions," Ma said. "Although disagreements and periodic bargaining will persist, structured cooperation, accompanied by occasional friction in specific sectors, is likely to become the new normal in bilateral economic ties."

Data from the General Administration of Customs also showed that China-US goods trade reached 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) in the first half of the year, accounting for 7.9 percent of China's total foreign trade.

James Zimmerman, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said he hopes this year will be a productive one for China-US relations, noting that current China-US trade policy is increasingly characterized by a "managed trade" approach centered on reciprocity.

Saying that engagement is in the best interest of the US, Zimmerman reiterated that China brings real value to US consumers and benefits Washington's long-term economic interests.

Similar views were expressed by Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soybean Export Council. "The recent announcement on tariff reductions is a positive signal. We hope the commitments made during the talks will soon be translated into concrete policy measures," he said.

Such optimism also resonates with US industrial companies stepping up long-term investment and innovation in China. Lin Chunmei, president and general manager of Corning China, said that as AI reshapes the global industrial landscape and drives demand for advanced materials and computing infrastructure, the US industrial materials manufacturer has evolved from technology introduction to collaborative innovation in China.

Corning will deepen local innovation, support next-generation computing infrastructure and contribute to the upgrading of China's industrial ecosystem, she said.

The company's confidence also comes as China continues to strengthen its position in advanced manufacturing and high-tech exports. In the first half of 2026, the country's exports of integrated circuits surged 88.7 percent year-on-year, while exports of electronic components rose 62.6 percent, statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed on Monday.

zhongnan@chinadaily.com.cn