Friction cited as Chinese visits to US decline

Insiders also point to growing appeal of other destinations, changing behavior of tourists

A decline in Chinese travel to the United States has brought diverse opinions on the cause from experts and industry insiders, ranging from political tension to a change in travelers' behavior.

According to the US government's National Travel and Tourism Office, which collects data from US Customs forms, travel from China to the US declined 5.7 percent last year to 2.9 million visitors. This is the first time since 2003 that Chinese travel to the US has dropped from the previous year.

"We've seen a decline of visitors from the Chinese mainland," said Jonathan Liu, assistant president of America Asia Travel Center, a travel agency in Monterey Park, California.

Liu said business from Chinese tourists has been slow in recent months, during the peak season in the tourism industry. He said people had begun canceling holiday trips to the US as early as November and December, another popular time for travel to the country.

With the report coming amid the US-China trade friction, some industry insiders said the trade dispute between the two countries might have played a key role in the declining number of Chinese visitors.

After months of tit-for-tat tariffs, the two countries agreed to a temporary truce to allow for talks in December last year. But the prospect for a trade deal fell apart this month when the US raised tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese products, and the Chinese retaliated by imposing tariffs on $60 billion of US imports.

Tori Barnes, executive vice-president for public affairs and policy at the US Travel Association, said in a statement, "The difficulty with trade skirmishes is that the unintended consequences are hard to predict, and we were concerned from the start that tensions with China might affect business and other travel to the US.

"The irony is that travel exports have been the greatest success story of our trade relationship with China, generating a $30 billion surplus and accounting for 19 percent of all our exports to that country in 2017," she added.

Larry Yu, a professor of hospitality management at George Washington University, said the US has had a trade surplus with China in travel in the past decade.

"That's why I think the tourism industry in the US is actually working very hard with Chinese business partners and trying to continue this market, and have the Chinese visitors continue to come," he said.

The number of Chinese tourists to the US increased dramatically over the past two decades. The total number of Chinese arrivals in 2000 was 249,000, data from the National Travel and Tourism Office shows. That number grew to 802,000 in 2010, and increased to 3.17 million in 2017.

A survey issued jointly by Nielsen and Alipay indicated that outbound Chinese tourism consumption has increased steadily. In 2017, outbound Chinese tourists spent an average of $5,565 per person, with average spending in 2018 estimated at $5,715, a growth of 3 percent year-on-year. Barnes from the US Travel Association said, "The Chinese visit the US in strong numbers, and they spend an average $6,700 per trip - about 50 percent more than the average international visitor."

Yu said the trade war is a partial factor in the decline of Chinese travel to the US, because it has created a mindset among some Chinese travelers that they should not contribute to the US economy at a time when the two countries are embroiled in a trade dispute.

However, Yu said other factors, such as the change in Chinese travelers' behavior and the increasing choices they have when it comes to destination countries, played a more substantial role in the drop of Chinese travel to the US.

"They are not coming in large numbers in big buses, and they are not just coming in to do the sites, and taking pictures and going shopping. Now they want to have a deeper experience, they want to immerse in the local culture, in the local tradition, in the local activities," he said.

Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy, said outbound tourism to the United States has experienced a downward trend since July.

He said the visits did see a year-on-year growth of 0.2 percent, reaching 3.02 million, in 2018, and the monthly decrease since July was evened out by good numbers in the first half of last year.

"However, the visits have plummeted since February," he said.

"The first big reason for the From page 1 decrease is that destinations such as Thailand and Japan and countries in Central and Eastern Europe have lured Chinese travelers away from the US with much more convenient flights and friendly visa policies," he said. "Also, the trade friction did affect the tourism market."

However, Dai remains positive about the future development of China-US tourism.

"No matter how strong the two countries will be as to finance or technologies, the cultural and tourism exchanges can't be replaced. Besides, the trade war, I believe, will become a steady situation in the near future," he said.

According to China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Chinese outbound travel remained strong last year. Chinese tourists made a total of 149.72 million outbound trips in 2018, an increase of 14.7 percent year-on-year.

Clayton Dube, the director of the US-China Institute at the University of Southern California, said the US-China trade friction has probably made Chinese people think America is less welcoming. However, the main contributing factor to the decline in Chinese travel is the slowdown in the Chinese economy, he said.

"They are less certain their incomes will continue, or will go up, because people may feel less certain about the future, they feel less comfortable to spend," he said.

The renminbi, which is currently trading at 6.91 yuan to the US dollar, was stronger a year ago at 6.41.

Dube added that the perception that Americans are not welcoming to Chinese visitors is simply not true.

"Most Americans, and most American businesses, are as eager as ever to have Chinese customers," he said.

Cheng Si in Beijing contributed to this story.

teresaliu@chinadailyusa.com

(China Daily Global 05/31/2019 page1)