Sino-US trade conflict will have no winners

Editor's Note: The trade friction between China and the United States intensified after Washington barred Huawei and its affiliates from buying US technology without government approval due to so-called security concerns, and increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports earlier this month. Here China Daily presents a collection of views on the impact of the trade friction.

1.It is heartening to note that there is a circular argument underway. When the US blocks Huawei, it also blocks its own export of chips to China, which in turn has kept chip prices down. So it was never a zero-sum game to begin with.

Research by the GSMA suggests that the onset of 5G can conservatively increase global GDP by $565 billion and $152 billion in tax revenue by 2034, producing 25 percent of the value created by millimeter-wave spectrum.

I don't see why the United States should frustrate potential global growth prospects in these areas except to protect the failure of its own corporate sector to influence the process.

2.Over the past 40 years through the efforts of both sides, China and the US have gone from little mutual understanding and appreciation, to greater interaction in every sphere of life. This interaction has brought great benefits to both countries and their peoples.

The relationship, however, is complex and of great importance. It is not surprising there would be setbacks and misunderstandings along the way. During this time I have witnessed great progress and many instances where dialogue and prolonged efforts have resolved difficult problems.

When there are not orderly mechanisms to resolve issues, the people of both countries will be hurt - as US farmers and purveyors of US specialty goods such as Kentucky bourbon are.

In my own field, Chinese patients might not get the benefit of the latest technologies, because tariffs have made them prohibitively expensive. US consumers may also soon see their cost of living increase, because Chinese-made goods will become pricier.

The race to the bottom in a tariff war would hurt both countries and their people, and not solve the problems at hand.

3.Australia is committed to the goal of trade liberalization. A negotiated outcome consistent with global trade rules would be the best outcome for both sides and for the region. A trade war would have no winners.

4.Experience shows US government advisers are unwitting masters of one of the 36 strategies - Feign madness, but keep your balance. The defense against this is to continue negotiation, even when it appears it is without hope.

In these negotiations it will be necessary to "toss out a stone to get jade". The peaceful settlement of this disagreement is the key long-term objective.

All levels of engagement by business and policymakers should be increased so a more sophisticated understanding of China can be a foundation for policy and trade discussion.

China's economy contributes 27 percent to world economic growth, versus the US contribution of 12.3 percent, according to calculations by Bloomberg.

Working with the United States is important, but the development of the Belt and Road Initiative will become more significant as alternative markets expand. Time and history is on China's side. Today progress may be slow, but slow progress is better than no progress.

5.The US is acting unilaterally, and whether or not it is found to be in breach of its WTO commitments its behavior is against the principles of the multilateral trading system.

To the extent it harms the rules-based system, this should be of concern to all countries, not only China. All countries, including Australia, need to urge the United States to adhere to the norms of the system that has served the international community so well for the past 70 years.

Inevitably it will be resolved through negotiations and diplomacy, but at what time and cost to every nation remains to be seen.

6.Protectionist policies are shortsighted. While they may have short-term political appeal, in the long term they drag countries to the bottom and guarantee lower living standards. We now live in a highly interconnected globalized digital economy. Protectionist policies impact the entire world trade system and matters can escalate quickly. Ultimately, there are no winners in a global trade war.

7.The current trade conflict is hitting the Chinese auto market hard as the worsening situation challenges consumer confidence pertaining to the direction of economic development. Automakers from the US will be heavily affected as they are the pioneers among international original equipment manufacturers to have a global network of vehicle R&D as well as manufacturing.

(China Daily Global 05/31/2019 page9)