African swine fever under control in China
Pork imports expected to reach 4 million tons this year, analyst says
The spread of decades-old African swine fever may have slowed down thanks to China's effective efforts, but is not yet in full retreat after bringing mixed fortunes to people of varied sectors.
Han Changfu, minister of agriculture and rural affairs, said on Tuesday at an international symposium in Beijing that China's African swine fever conditions are now "under effective control" and growth of new cases is gradually slowing down, Xinhua News Agency reported.
But South Africa has detected an outbreak on a farm in its North West province, according to a Wednesday Reuters report on the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE.
That outbreak killed 32 out of a herd of 36 pigs on a farm in the Ditsobotla district, with the remaining infected animals slaughtered, the report said. Occurring outside South Africa's control zone for the disease, the incidence may be linked to the pigs' contact with wild animals, the report said.
A herd infected by the disease, which was first reported in Africa in 1921, must be culled immediately as there is no treatment that can cure it.
The OIE said that Vietnam, Mongolia and Cambodia reported cases in the first quarter of 2019. Mongolia reportedly has resolved all such cases, while Cambodia reported its first outbreak on March 22.
Since the highly contagious disease was first detected in China in August in Liaoning province, 122 cases - 119 affecting domestic pigs and three involving wild boars - have been confirmed in 30 provincial-level regions, Han said at symposium.
As of April 9, quarantines were lifted in 108 disease-stricken areas, he said, adding that the number of new cases in each of the first three months of this year was contained within single digits, signifying a slowdown in the disease spread.
Vice-Agriculture Minister Yu Kangzhen added that China plans to divide its hog industry into several zones to better coordinate efforts in containing infections, regulating cross-regional transport and guaranteeing the pork supply.
Pig-raising and pork-processing sectors have racked up both losses and gains. In China, the growth of pork prices rebounded after declining for 25 consecutive months, rising 5.1 percent year-on-year in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
On a month-on-month basis, the pork price moderately went up 1.2 percent on average nationwide as outbreaks of African swine fever were gradually contained.
Angela Zhang, head of Business Intelligence Division at the Shanghai-based IQC Insights, said in her latest report published at online portal The Pig Site that pork buyers, such as packing houses and restaurants, "could be more likely to choose imported pork to avoid risks in the future market".
Pork remains a key source of protein for most East Asian countries. Pan Chenjun, senior analyst for animal protein at the Dutch lender Rabobank, estimates that China can roughly double its pork imports this year from the 2.1 million tons of imports in 2018.
The anticipated higher demand from China boosted hog futures contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "The (hog) market has rallied a lot and there is a lot of speculative interest right now," said Darin Friedrichs, risk management consultant for the Asia commodities division of the New York-based INTL FCStone.
Heading in the opposite direction are soy and soybean imports. China, which is home to about half of the global swine population of one billion, is also the world's biggest buyer of soybeans. News of China's outbreaks has pulled down soybean and soybean meal contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade and the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Chong Hoe Leong, commodities analyst at the Kuala Lumpur-based Public Investment Bank, said the outbreak which hammered the China's hog farming industry "has weakened the country's demand for soybean meal and soybeans" and will continue to pressure prices.
Wang Xiaoyu contributed to the story.
prime@chinadailyapac.com
(China Daily 04/12/2019 page6)
