Beyond 2018
2018 has come to an end and 2019 has arrived. China Daily summarizes a series of incidents last year whose influence will be felt this year.
Connectivity
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge officially opened to traffic on Oct 24. Covering a distance of 55 kilometers, the bridge is the longest sea-crossing of its kind in the world, and it has been hailed as the one of seven wonders of the modern world by overseas media outlets.
Expert: Mao Yanhua, a professor at the Center for Studies on Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta at the Research Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge is a major construction project led by the central government. It connects Hong Kong, Macao and Zhuhai, the three main cities in the Pearl River Delta area, like blood vessels connecting different human organs.
The opening of the bridge will provide a boost to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the surrounding areas such as Shenzhen.
More importantly, the bridge will strengthen the interaction among cities, not only in the Greater Bay Area, but also in the whole of Guangdong province.
Even the neighboring regions will benefit, too. Cities in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, for instance, will gain more development opportunities.
Progress
The Korean Peninsula experienced a dramatic breakthrough with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea making great progress in relations with the United States and the Republic of Korea. Will the three countries be able to untie the nuclear knot in 2019?
Expert: Liu Litao, a researcher of international relations in Nanjing University
The historic summit between DPRK and US leaders in June promoted bilateral communication and the agreement for Pyongyang to dismantle some nuclear test sites in exchange for Washington's promise of a security guarantee.
Relations between the DPRK and the ROK also made progresses. The leaders of the two countries met three times and jointly issued their Panmunjom Declaration and Pyongyang Declaration.
However, the Peninsula cannot go straight to complete denuclearization and peace mechanism this year. Its nuclear weapons are the only chips that Pyongyang can use to bargain with Washington, and Washington has not yet provided a security guarantee to it. Also, the US has not relieved any of its sanctions against Pyongyang. Instead, the progress in inter-Korean relations has caused the US to warn that they should not exceed the Peninsula's denuclearization process.
Although Pyongyang is not strong enough to challenge Washington, Washington can hardly give in on the Peninsula issue, as it is an important tool for the US to gain advantage in East Asia.
Confrontation
The United States announced it would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia and it was establishing a space force. The antagonism between the two major military countries increased worries of an arms race.
Expert: Zhu Feng, dean of the Institute of International Relations, Nanjing University
The shadow of nuclear war has not been eliminated but has been controlled under the global consensus on nuclear disarmament and nuclear weapons control since the 1980s. However, the US and Russia have ignited a small-scale arms race and oil has been added to the flames by US President Donald Trump who promoted a US space force and threatened to quit the INF treaty.
Washington and Moscow have blamed each other for violating the INF treaty for years. But it was Trump's policies that have broken the rules and balance of arms control between the two major nuclear countries, undermining the global disarmament mechanism.
The two countries have started small-scale strategic nuclear competition and more uncertainties will challenge global security in 2019. Russia's hypersonic missile rang alarm bells in the US and Russia's draft proposal to keep the US-Russia INF treaty was not upheld in a United Nations' vote. The stalemate in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine is also a struggle between Russia and the US.
Clash
The Russian navy's seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch Strait on November escalated tensions between the two countries.
It is known that the Ukraine crisis is attributable to NATO's geopolitical expansion to Eastern Europe, and the Crimea crisis in 2014 has fueled the tensions that had long been simmering between the two countries.
Expert: Zhang Yao, a senior researcher of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
The Ukraine's bid to join the European Union and the sovereignty dispute over Crimea were the main reasons for the collision between the two countries, as the Ukrainian government does not recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea.
After the incident in the Kerch Strait, Russia has remained restrained and tried not to let tensions escalate.
However, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that the country was in a state of war and called on the members of NATO to deploy warships in the Sea of Azov.
As can be seen from this incident, the two countries have different attitudes and different interests over many issues. But the incident will have a limited effect on the regional situation, as there is a huge difference in military strength between Russia and Ukraine.
Khashoggi
In October, Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist from Saudi Arabia, entered the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, never to come out. Later reports said he might have been killed inside the consulate. His death triggered a diplomatic crisis in the Middle East and beyond.
Expert: Zou Zhiqiang, an associate researcher at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University
The situation in the Middle East is rather complicated, not least because the region has many competing leaders: Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, with the US always intervening in the region's affairs. Khashoggi's death has made the already complicated situation more complicated.
The incident dealt a big blow to Saudi Arabia's global image, and weakened investors' trust and market confidence in the Arab country, which could limit its role in regional affairs. The US, too, suffered because its alliance with Saudi Arabia triggered opposition within the country. Especially, the Donald Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Iran was opposed by many in and outside the US.
However, Washington cannot afford to sever its alliance with Riyadh just because of the death of a journalist. The US could make huge sums of money by selling arms to Saudi Arabia, as well as benefit from the latter's stabilizing role in the Middle East. So the US-Saudi Arabia alliance is here to stay.
Warning
In June, former news anchor Cui Yongyuan uploaded a post online explaining how a celebrity evaded tax by signing contracts showing a much lower remuneration than what he or she actually received. In October, Fan Bingbing, widely believed to be the celebrity in question, was fined 884 million yuan ($123 million) by the tax authorities for tax evasion.
Expert: Luo Longping, a tax and criminal lawyer at Jingsh Law Firm
Fan's case will have a bigger long-term impact. Her being fined reaffirms the principle that everyone is equal in the eyes of the law, and even a celebrity will be punished for breaking the law.
The case has also set an example for other celebrities, warning them to not evade tax. Reports in November showed some other celebrities had started paying the taxes they had earlier evaded.
When news of Fan being fined was first reported, some netizens said on social media that she deserved a criminal penalty, not only a fine. This prompted several lawyers and law experts to explain that according to an important principle of the tax law, a suspect found to have evaded tax for the first time could be given administrative punishment instead of criminal punishment.
Fan's case provided an opportunity to further educate the public about the tax law, which in turn will help to further regulate taxation in the future.
Protests
The gilets jaunes (yellow vest) movement has transformed from being a protest against French President Emmanuel Macron's new eco-tax on fuel to a national protest against Macron. The movement has also spread to other European countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands.
Expert: Cui Hongjian, director of the Department for European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies
The spread of the yellow vest protests is symptomatic of the social conflict in Europe as people are disappointed about the declining living standards and ineffective governance.
But the problem in France is more severe because people had high expectations of President Emmanuel Macron, as the leader of a new party, but his party cannot reform the traditional political system in a short time. What's more, Macron launched sweeping reform in a rush and the reforms have not met people's needs.
The gilets jaunes protests are having a great impact on Macron's presidency, and will affect the implementation of his policies in the future, France's political environment and even the power of his party in the European Parliament.
The gilets jaunes movement has close relations with the rising populism in Europe but cannot be regarded as a populist movement. And in the time of the internet, it is natural for such a movement to spread. Furthermore, after decades of prosperity and population mobility, the troubles of integration have appeared in the European Union, creating political instability.
In March, Cambridge Analytica, a data mining, brokerage and analysis company, was reported to have obtained personal information of about 50 million Facebook users. Facebook stock prices fell sharply and the company was fined 1.63 billion euros by the European Union for data breach.
Expert: Lu Chuanying, an associate researcher at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
Facebook provides a platform for users to interact with each other, and its size and influence depend on the number of its users.
But as its size and influence have grown, the personal information of the billions of people it collects also poses a huge risk to both the company and its users. Should personal data be leaked, the company will have to pay huge amounts of compensation to users whose privacy is violated.
In some experiments, data companies reportedly managed to outline a person's daily life by collecting their personal data from social media. Leaks of such personal data may cause a loss that no money can compensate. Even for a government, the database of big platforms such as Facebook is important because a leak could threaten national security. In the case of Facebook, Cambridge Analytica analyzed the impact of personal information on the US presidential election, implying that it posed a potential challenge to the state. So a government has to perform the role of night watchman well.
It's time the authorities regulated such companies strictly. We hope the Facebook case will prompt similar companies to strengthen their efforts to prevent data they collect from being leaked.
Taiwan
On Nov 24, Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, suffered a big defeat in the local elections, winning only six of the 22 cities and counties. This prompted Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen to resign as leader of the DPP.
Expert: Liu Xiangping, a senior professor of Taiwan studies, Nanjing University
The failure of the DPP has once again proved right that anyone that dares to seek "Taiwan independence" will fail. For Taiwan compatriots, their biggest interest is healthy economic growth and the prosperity of their businesses, instead of any slogan that forces them into political confrontation.
The DPP has ignored Taiwan residents' interests in the two years it has been in power. Since Tsai refuses to uphold the 1992 Consensus that there is only one China, cross-Straits relations have frozen, preventing Taiwan from benefiting from the peaceful development of cross-Straits ties.
The number of Chinese mainland tourists to Taiwan has dropped by 40 percent since Tsai took office, dealing a big blow to the island's tourism industry. Agricultural products, which previously accounted for a high percentage of the island's supplies to the mainland, are now overstocked.
But instead of correcting their wrongs, Tsai and her fellow DPP leaders have continually hyped up the cross-Straits issue and accused the mainland of "intervening" in the local elections.
However, they can no longer fool Taiwan residents. And if they continue to move ahead on the wrong path next year, they will only lose further support.
Scandal
On July 15, Changchun Changsheng Biotech Co was reported to have falsified the production records for its rabies vaccine for human use. Later, it also came to light that it had produced substandard DPT vaccines for children's use in the past.
Expert: Tao Lina, a doctor with 15 years' experience of vaccines
Some said the incident had little effect on actual public health, which in a sense is not totally baseless, as false production records do not necessarily mean fake vaccines.
Besides, as the government has taken measures to recall the substandard vaccines, the possibility of them damaging public health is quite low.
But the fact that some vaccine producers have lax production quality control has undermined people's confidence in the domestic vaccination system. And although the company was fined 9.1 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) and its top executives were banned for life from the vaccine profession, many people used micro blogs and other social media platforms to express their distrust in the domestic vaccination system.
But such distrust is unfair because China's vaccination system is strictly supervised. That central supervisors unearthed the Changchun company's scandal is the best proof of how sincerely they are working.
On Dec 23, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, reviewed the draft of a new, separate vaccination law, which would strengthen supervision, and risk and quality control. There is room for improvement in the law. Still, we hope the authorities' efforts will increase people's trust in the vaccination system in the future.
Unilateralism
In June, the United States exited from the United Nations Human Rights Commission. In October, it announced it was starting the procedures to exit the Universal Postal Union and it would exit the treaty on the International Court of Justice.
Expert: Tao Wenzhao, a US studies researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Before 2018, the US had already exited from the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Education, Science and Culture Organization, as well as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.
Exiting from so many organizations and agreements will undoubtedly curb the influence of the US. For example, it has always been in the habit of blaming other countries for "human rights" issues; Now the US is no longer a member of the UNHRC and the excuse will look paler than before. Besides that, exiting the Universal Postal Union and the International Court of Justice also makes it more difficult for the US to make use of these organizations to realize its objectives.
The withdrawals are part of the Donald Trump administration's "America First" policy and incompatibility of that policy with multilateral arrangements.
Some say that's good opportunity for China to participate more actively in more world affairs, but it remains debatable whether China should join these arrangements dominated by the West. Maybe it is more proper for China to better develop itself. The day will come when international institutions are friendlier toward developing countries.
Tax reform
On Aug 31, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the nation's top legislature, passed an amendment to the tax law easing the tax burden of most wage earners.
Expert: Pan Helin, a post-doctoral researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Science
The personal income tax reform reduced the tax burden on wage earners in three ways. First, it raised the threshold of taxable income. Second, it lowered the tax rate on taxable income and introduced many deductions.
The two moves will help boost the economy, as the money wage earners save will allow them to spend more on consumption.
Third, the deductions for children's education, adult's continuing education, housing loan interest, housing rent, living expenses for senior citizens, and medical expenses for major diseases will help people to spend more in these fields.
For example, the deductions for children's and adults' education will encourage people to spend more on their and their children's education. That in turn can help raise the birth rate and help people to take better care of the elderly, which are necessary as China faces the double pressure of a declining birth rate and an aging society.
Shared bicycle
One after another bicycle-sharing companies have gone bankrupt last year, with many of them going bust in November, when Ofo, one of the largest of such companies, delayed refunding users' deposits.
Expert: Liu Yuanju, a researcher at Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law
Ofo still cannot refund the deposit of 99 yuan ($14.3) or 199 yuan of all the 10 million users who have applied to get it back.
Also, there has been a drastic drop in the number of shared-bike users this year and a number of bike-sharing companies have exited the market.
Every user pays close to the price of an ordinary bicycle before he or she can use a bike-sharing service. And most of the bike-sharing companies promise to deposit the amount in a special bank account so that it can be withdrawn upon request. But most of the companies used the money to buy more bicycles in order to expand their businesses and get a larger share of the market.
But the bankruptcy of some companies is not necessarily bad. The exit of incompetent companies means the bike-sharing market is undergoing self-correction and the survivors will be those with the lowest risks. Which means consumers can use the bikes in the future without the fear of losing their deposit.
Medical Ethics
On Nov 26, He Jiankui, a Chinese research fellow in genetic studies, announced the birth of gene-edited twins, sparking nationwide concern on whether the human gene editing violates medical ethics.
Expert: Tang Cheng, a doctoral candidate and research fellow at the Institute for Neuroscience, Chinese Academy of Sciences
He has set a very bad example for other researchers in genetics by violating medical ethics in the name of science. However, his is not a scientific breakthrough, because he only conducted an experiment that other scientists dared not do out of respect for medical ethics.
He has received little punishment for his unethical modifying of the genes of two babies, which could encourage other researchers to follow his example and cross the bottom line of medical ethics. His action has made scientists engaged in genetics research more suspectful in the eyes of the public.
Many netizens have raised doubts about human gene editing, which might make it more difficult for scientists to apply the technology in the future. That's why I believe He's action could curb the progress of gene editing.
People are not likely to make a distinction between serious scientists or science institutes and the wrong deeds of a single scientist.
Self defense
In September, police and prosecutors in Kunshan, Jiangsu province, concluded that Yu Haiming, an electrician, acted in self-defense when he fatally wounded a man and therefore would not face any criminal charges.
Yu was attacked with a long knife by Liu Hailong. After Liu staggered and fell to the ground, Yu picked up the knife and stabbed Liu.
Expert: Zhao Lei, a lawyer at and partner and vice-director of Beijing Zewen Law Firm
The Supreme People's Court recently released four case studies to clarify what is meant by self-defense in law. The Kunshan case is one of the cases. The recognition of justifiable self-defense in the Kunshan case shows China's criminal law is undergoing continuous refinement.
Statutory laws strive to provide comprehensive rules. Yet they are relatively general in nature and cannot be applied to all cases.
According to the criminal law, if a person acts in self-defense against an attacker, potential murderer, robber, rapist, kidnapper or any other criminal who threatens his or her personal safety, he or she shall not bear criminal responsibility even if their action causes injury or death to the perpetrator.
That clause has been widely received welcomed. However, in judicial practice, that clause is seldom applied.
The Kunshan case prompted the top court to further define justifiable self-defense and clarify the situations in which self-defense should be considered excessive.
Conundrum
Confrontation, stalemate and imbalance best describe the situation in the Middle East in 2018. The US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May and moved its embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in June.
Expert: Hua Liming, China's former ambassador to Iran and the United Arab Emirates, and now a researcher on Middle East studies
By pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, US President Donald Trump has nullified the foreign policy achievement of his predecessor Barack Obama, and triggered what could be a destructive arms race in the Middle East.
The US has re-imposed sanctions on Iran, including those lifted under the historic Iran nuclear deal, driving Teheran into a corner.
The intensifying conflict between Washington and Teheran is now the greatest concern in the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is becoming increasingly marginalized.
The goal of the US and Israel is clear: to marginalize Iran. Iran is now involved in nearly all serious conflicts in the Middle East, almost always on the side of those the US considers enemies. So the US and Israel will do whatever it takes to portray Iran as an enemy of the Arab world.
And although Trump is not always predictable, his moves suggest he is trying to woo voters in the US, because irrespective of the midterm election results, he is keen on seeking re-election in 2020.
Trade tensions
On Dec 1, the leaders of China and the United States reached a consensus on suspending imposing new tariffs and take measures to ease bilateral trade tensions, which started in March 2018 with the US announcing new tariffs against products imported from China.
Expert: Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation
The consensus has, to a large extent, prevented the Sino-US relationship from worsening. There used to be worries about China and the US engaging in a "new cold war", but now those worries seem to have eased.
More important, China has realized all its goals in the consensus. According to a news release, the US' past order-like claim of "cutting US-China trade deficit by $100 billion" was given up, while the two sides agreed to narrow the trade gap by enlarging China's imports from the US, not cutting its exports to the latter. Neither has the US mentioned anything about China's own innovation plans.
In a word, the trade frictions seem to have been curbed in a way that benefits both sides, which has given China confidence that it can cope with any external challenges.
However, it is still too early to assert "Sino-US trade frictions have come to an end", because that is not the story. The US government has always had the bad habit of letting other countries pay for its own illness, and there might be more uncertainties unless it gives up that philosophy. China must be ready to deal with uncertainties that might emerge.
(China Daily 01/02/2019 page8)
